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NFC South Race

2026 season · 10,000 simulations

Updated Thu, Nov 12 · 11:46 PM ET

← Every team's playoff odds

The Race iHow this works

Team	Division	Wild Card	Playoffs
Buccaneers3-6 · 2-0 div	44%	1%	45%
Panthers3-5 · 1-1 div	21%	1%	22%
Saints3-5 · 0-1 div	19%	1%	20%
Falcons3-6 · 1-2 div	16%	1%	17%

Games That Decide It iHow this works

The games left whose results move the race most, and each contender's chance either way.

1. 1Buccaneers at SaintsSun, Jan 10 · NO 54%

   Division Chance	If TB Wins	If NO Wins
   Buccaneers	59%	20%
   Saints	7%	38%
   Panthers	20%	24%

2. 2Buccaneers at FalconsSun, Dec 27 · ATL 52%

   Division Chance	If TB Wins	If ATL Wins
   Buccaneers	60%	23%
   Falcons	4%	31%
   Panthers	19%	25%

3. 3Panthers at BuccaneersMon, Nov 30 · TB 64%

   Division Chance	If CAR Wins	If TB Wins
   Buccaneers	18%	58%
   Panthers	45%	9%
   Falcons	18%	15%

4. 4Saints at BuccaneersSun, Dec 20 · TB 66%

   Division Chance	If NO Wins	If TB Wins
   Buccaneers	18%	57%
   Saints	38%	9%
   Panthers	25%	19%

5. 5Saints at PanthersSun, Dec 13 · CAR 55%

   Division Chance	If NO Wins	If CAR Wins
   Panthers	7%	33%
   Saints	32%	8%
   Falcons	17%	14%

6. 6Rams at BuccaneersSun, Jan 3 · LAR 62%

   Division Chance	If LAR Wins	If TB Wins
   Buccaneers	33%	58%
   Panthers	26%	16%
   Saints	23%	14%