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Saints at Bears

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Saints3-5
at
Bears7-2

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Soldier Field · Chicago, IL

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Bears by 7.6, the book by 9.5 — 1.9 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

NO 28%win chanceCHI 72%
GordStatsCHI by 7.672% to win · NO 20–CHI 28
DraftKingsCHI -9.5O/U 48.5
ESPNCHI 79%win chance
Watch score55

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bears' third-down offense (4th) meets Saints' third-down defense (32nd).
  • Bears' pass defense (3rd) meets Saints' passing game (18th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Saints Offense vs Bears Defense

NO offCHI def
EPA per play
20th-0.017th-0.06
Pass EPA
18th+0.053rd-0.10
Run EPA
21st-0.1415th-0.09
Success rate
18th43%3rd40%
Explosive plays
28th7%16th8%
Points per drive
14th2.1610th1.90
Red zone TD
4th69%13th54%
Third downs
8th43%1st23%
Sacks
14th6%3rd9%
Turnovers
28th16%20th10%

Saints: 30.5 sec a snap (3rd fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

Bears Offense vs Saints Defense

CHI offNO def
EPA per play
9th+0.0725th+0.08
Pass EPA
12th+0.1422nd+0.13
Run EPA
16th-0.0824th-0.05
Success rate
7th47%29th47%
Explosive plays
6th9%18th8%
Points per drive
10th2.2929th2.51
Red zone TD
22nd54%12th53%
Third downs
4th46%32nd50%
Sacks
13th6%8th8%
Turnovers
29th17%29th8%

Bears: 31.9 sec a snap (17th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Saints

  • QBTyler Shough+0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.6 · 314 dropbacks · 16th of 31
  • WRChris Olave+0.45 EPA a target · 69% caught · 74 targets · 24th in EPA
  • WRDevaughn Vele+0.43 EPA a target · 67% caught · 46 targets · 29th in EPA

Bears

  • QBCaleb Williams+0.24 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.6 · 216 dropbacks · 5th of 31
  • RBD'Andre Swift-0.12 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 135 carries · 26th of 38
  • WRRome Odunze+0.72 EPA a target · 66% caught · 44 targets · 4th in EPA

Recent Form

Saints

  • W23–22vs Browns−1
  • L10–16vs Steelers−3
  • W34–27at Giants+6
  • L13–23vs Vikings−5

Bears

  • W27–24vs Buccaneers0
  • W34–17at Seahawks+23
  • W30–24vs Patriots+7
  • W31–23at Falcons+7

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.