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NFC North Race

2026 season · 10,000 simulations

Updated Thu, Nov 12 · 11:46 PM ET

← Every team's playoff odds

The Race iHow this works

Team	Division	Wild Card	Playoffs
Lions6-2 · 2-0 div	36%	44%	80%
Vikings6-2 · 2-1 div	28%	50%	78%
Bears7-2 · 0-2 div	25%	52%	77%
Packers6-3 · 1-2 div	11%	48%	60%

Games That Decide It iHow this works

The games left whose results move the race most, and each contender's chance either way.

1. 1Lions at VikingsSun, Dec 20 · DET 62%

   Division Chance	If DET Wins	If MIN Wins
   Lions	56%	15%
   Vikings	9%	47%
   Packers	10%	12%

2. 2Lions at BearsSun, Jan 3 · CHI 53%

   Division Chance	If DET Wins	If CHI Wins
   Lions	55%	17%
   Bears	9%	41%
   Vikings	26%	30%

3. 3Bears at LionsThu, Nov 26 · DET 53%

   Division Chance	If CHI Wins	If DET Wins
   Lions	16%	53%
   Bears	43%	10%
   Vikings	30%	26%

4. 4Bears at VikingsSun, Jan 10 · MIN 56%

   Division Chance	If CHI Wins	If MIN Wins
   Vikings	10%	45%
   Bears	41%	9%

5. 5Lions at PackersSun, Jan 10 · DET 55%

   Division Chance	If DET Wins	If GB Wins
   Lions	52%	19%
   Packers	2%	21%
   Vikings	24%	32%

6. 6Packers at BearsFri, Dec 25 · CHI 55%

   Division Chance	If GB Wins	If CHI Wins
   Bears	10%	38%
   Packers	23%	2%
   Vikings	30%	26%