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What the Commanders Need
2026 NFL playoffs · 10,000 simulations
Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 6:27 PM ET
18% to make the playoffs
3-5-1 · NFC East · Team page
If It Wins Out, or Doesn't How this works
Win out
–
<1% likely
One more loss
97%
3% likely
Two or more
15%
97% likely
Winning out is rare in our runs (44 of 10,000), so its odds there are rough.
Games Left
| Game | Win | If W | If L | Only L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs BengalsMon, Nov 23 | 37% | 31% | 10% | – |
| at CardinalsSun, Nov 29 | 65% | 27% | 8% | – |
| at TitansSun, Dec 6 | 59% | 25% | 7% | – |
| vs TexansSun, Dec 13 | 37% | 30% | 10% | – |
| vs FalconsSun, Dec 20 | 52% | 26% | 8% | – |
| at VikingsSun, Dec 27 | 28% | 32% | 11% | – |
| at JaguarsSun, Jan 3 | 22% | 37% | 13% | – |
| vs CowboysSun, Jan 10 | 51% | 31% | 5% | – |
Division Title
| Finish | Chance | Playoff |
|---|---|---|
| Wins the NFC East | 17% | >99% |
| Does not win it | 83% | 1% |
Who to Root For
This Week
- 49ers over Cowboys20% if SF wins, 14% if DAL does · SF 62% to win · Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET+6pts
Later This Season
- 49ers over Giants21% if SF wins, 11% if NYG does · SF 64% to win · Sun, Dec 6+10pts
- Colts over Giants22% if IND wins, 13% if NYG does · IND 50% to win · Sun, Nov 29+9pts
- Eagles over Giants22% if PHI wins, 14% if NYG does · PHI 57% to win · Sun, Jan 10+8pts
Road to the Title
| Round | Chance |
|---|---|
| Makes the playoffs | 18% |
| Reaches the divisional round | 7% |
| Reaches the conference title game | 3% |
| Reaches the Super Bowl | 1% |
| Wins the Super Bowl | <1% |