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49ers at Cowboys

Week 10 preview

Updated Sat, Nov 14 · 5:48 PM ET

49ers7-1
at
Cowboys4-5

Sun, Nov 15 · 4:25 PM ET · Fox

AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats likes 49ers by 4, the book by 3.5 — 0.5 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

SF 62%win chanceDAL 38%
GordStatsSF by 462% to win · SF 29–DAL 24
DraftKingsSF -3.5O/U 55.5
ESPNSF 64%win chance
Watch score85Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • 49ers' offense (2nd) meets Cowboys' defense (31st).
  • Cowboys' pass protection (5th) meets 49ers' pass rush (26th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

49ers Offense vs Cowboys Defense

SF offDAL def
EPA per play
2nd+0.2031st+0.13
Pass EPA
1st+0.3227th+0.17
Run EPA
3rd+0.0231st+0.01
Success rate
1st54%26th46%
Explosive plays
2nd11%22nd9%
Points per drive
2nd2.9528th2.48
Red zone TD
1st85%28th69%
Third downs
2nd52%31st49%
Sacks
1st3%23rd5%
Turnovers
19th12%27th8%

49ers: 33.5 sec a snap (26th fastest) · passes 2% more than expected

Cowboys Offense vs 49ers Defense

DAL offSF def
EPA per play
6th+0.109th-0.04
Pass EPA
8th+0.1812th+0.02
Run EPA
10th-0.044th-0.19
Success rate
8th47%20th44%
Explosive plays
20th8%1st4%
Points per drive
6th2.7313th2.00
Red zone TD
5th68%8th48%
Third downs
5th45%19th41%
Sacks
5th4%26th5%
Turnovers
9th9%8th14%

Cowboys: 30.7 sec a snap (5th fastest) · passes 2% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

49ers

  • QBBrock Purdy+0.35 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.4 · 242 dropbacks · 1st of 31
  • RBChristian McCaffrey+0.16 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 94 carries · 1st of 38
  • WRMike Evans+1.02 EPA a target · 69% caught · 39 targets · 1st in EPA

Cowboys

  • QBDak Prescott+0.18 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.0 · 324 dropbacks · 10th of 31
  • RBJavonte Williams+0.00 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 140 carries · 10th of 38
  • WRCeeDee Lamb+0.36 EPA a target · 67% caught · 96 targets · 39th in EPA
  • WRGeorge Pickens+0.39 EPA a target · 63% caught · 52 targets · 38th in EPA

Recent Form

49ers

  • W38–17vs Raiders+13
  • L20–29at Falcons−13
  • W23–17vs Commanders−4
  • W32–29at Seahawks+7

Cowboys

  • W27–23at Colts+4
  • L30–33vs Cardinals−8
  • W38–21at Eagles+16
  • L13–23at Packers−6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.