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Bengals at Commanders

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Bengals6-2
at
Commanders3-5-1

Mon, Nov 23 · 8:15 PM ET · ESPN

Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Bengals by 4.3, the book by 3.5 — 0.8 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

CIN 63%win chanceWSH 37%
GordStatsCIN by 4.363% to win · CIN 28–WSH 23
DraftKingsCIN -3.5O/U 51.5
ESPNCIN 74%win chance
Watch score58Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bengals' red-zone offense (3rd) meets Commanders' red-zone defense (30th).
  • Bengals' red-zone defense (5th) meets Commanders' red-zone offense (18th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bengals Offense vs Commanders Defense

CIN offWSH def
EPA per play
1st+0.2020th+0.04
Pass EPA
2nd+0.2918th+0.08
Run EPA
11th-0.0626th-0.04
Success rate
2nd53%27th46%
Explosive plays
10th9%7th7%
Points per drive
3rd2.8918th2.23
Red zone TD
3rd71%30th72%
Third downs
1st54%16th40%
Sacks
7th5%29th5%
Turnovers
16th11%9th14%

Bengals: 32.4 sec a snap (23rd fastest) · passes 12% more than expected

Commanders Offense vs Bengals Defense

WSH offCIN def
EPA per play
22nd-0.0324th+0.07
Pass EPA
20th+0.0319th+0.09
Run EPA
22nd-0.1428th-0.03
Success rate
20th42%24th45%
Explosive plays
23rd7%21st9%
Points per drive
22nd1.9014th2.07
Red zone TD
18th57%5th43%
Third downs
31st33%28th48%
Sacks
16th6%9th7%
Turnovers
4th7%4th15%

Commanders: 30.8 sec a snap (6th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bengals

  • QBJoe Burrow+0.32 EPA a dropback · CPOE +10.6 · 301 dropbacks · 2nd of 31
  • RBChase Brown-0.09 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 88 carries · 22nd of 38
  • WRJa'Marr Chase+0.60 EPA a target · 72% caught · 69 targets · 11th in EPA
  • WRTee Higgins+0.88 EPA a target · 72% caught · 64 targets · 2nd in EPA

Commanders

  • QBJayden Daniels+0.08 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.6 · 254 dropbacks · 14th of 31
  • RBJacory Croskey-Merritt-0.10 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 67 carries · 24th of 38

Recent Form

Bengals

  • W34–17vs Falcons+13
  • W43–36vs Titans−3
  • W35–13at Ravens+21
  • W31–24at Dolphins+4

Commanders

  • W24–21at Giants+5
  • L13–20vs Rams−2
  • W27–10vs Eagles+14
  • L17–23at 49ers+4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.