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Steelers at Eagles

Week 11 preview

Updated Fri, Nov 13 · 11:46 AM ET

Steelers6-2
at
Eagles2-7

Sun, Nov 22 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Steelers by 6.5, the book by 4.5 — 2 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

PIT 69%win chancePHI 31%
GordStatsPIT by 6.569% to win · PIT 24–PHI 17
DraftKingsPIT -4.5O/U 38.5
Assumes outJalen HurtsEagles quarterback
ESPNPIT 68%win chance
Watch score34

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Steelers' scoring defense (5th) meets Eagles' scoring offense (31st).
  • Steelers' ball security (10th) meets Eagles' takeaway defense (32nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Steelers Offense vs Eagles Defense

PIT offPHI def
EPA per play
14th+0.0222nd+0.05
Pass EPA
26th-0.0523rd+0.15
Run EPA
1st+0.1519th-0.08
Success rate
16th44%12th43%
Explosive plays
11th9%20th9%
Points per drive
20th1.9720th2.28
Red zone TD
26th50%16th59%
Third downs
17th38%18th41%
Sacks
21st7%30th5%
Turnovers
10th9%32nd4%

Steelers: 33.6 sec a snap (27th fastest) · passes 5% more than expected

Eagles Offense vs Steelers Defense

PHI offPIT def
EPA per play
27th-0.0910th-0.02
Pass EPA
25th-0.0510th+0.01
Run EPA
26th-0.1611th-0.14
Success rate
31st37%15th43%
Explosive plays
32nd4%19th9%
Points per drive
31st1.535th1.63
Red zone TD
2nd73%2nd38%
Third downs
24th36%6th34%
Sacks
26th8%4th8%
Turnovers
11th9%6th14%

Eagles: 31.5 sec a snap (12th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Steelers

  • QBAaron Rodgers-0.07 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.5 · 294 dropbacks · 28th of 31
  • RBJaylen Warren+0.15 EPA a carry · 6.0 yds · 108 carries · 2nd of 38

Eagles

  • RBSaquon Barkley-0.05 EPA a carry · 4.3 yds · 69 carries · 17th of 38
  • WRDontayvion Wicks+0.53 EPA a target · 61% caught · 31 targets · 18th in EPA

Recent Form

Steelers

  • W27–6vs Browns+16
  • W16–10vs Saints+3
  • W26–19at Buccaneers+4
  • W34–22vs Colts+12

Eagles

  • L11–19vs Giants−9
  • L10–27at Commanders−14
  • L21–38vs Cowboys−16
  • L14–25vs Panthers−11

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.