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UMass
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
4–2 · 129th of 138
Rated -19.2 points vs an average FBS team · scoring -2.4 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 6.4–5.6 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 6.9–5.1 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.1066th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.1178th of 138
Success rate41.2%69th of 138
Success allowed44.1%100th of 138
Explosiveness0.92101st of 138
Defensive havoc14.9%89th of 138
3rd down35.8%103rd of 138
Turnover margin/g+1.179th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 at Rutgers | Sep 3 | W 37–21 | -35.2 | — |
2 vs Sacred Heart | Sep 12 | W 37–10 | +11.9 | — |
3 vs Stonehill | Sep 19 | W 36–14 | +14.3 | — |
4 at Sacramento St | Sep 26 | W 35–6 | -8.2 | — |
5 vs E Michigan | Oct 3 | L 14–38 | +4.8 | — |
6 vs Miami OH | Oct 10 | L 19–20 | -6.4 | — |
7 at Buffalo | Oct 17 | proj 23–24 | -1.0 | 48% |
8 at UConn | Oct 23 | proj 17–39 | -22.0 | 8% |
10 vs Ball State | Nov 4 | proj 29–22 | +6.5 | 66% |
11 at Toledo | Nov 11 | proj 17–35 | -17.9 | 13% |
12 vs Akron | Nov 18 | proj 27–23 | +3.7 | 59% |
13 at Bowling Green | Nov 28 | proj 21–24 | -3.5 | 41% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.