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Toledo
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
4–2 · 85th of 138
Rated -4.2 points vs an average FBS team · scoring +1.9 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 8.5–3.5 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 8.5–3.8 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.1253rd of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.1170th of 138
Success rate40.1%92nd of 138
Success allowed39.7%36th of 138
Explosiveness0.9527th of 138
Defensive havoc14.2%99th of 138
3rd down44.4%45th of 138
Turnover margin/g-0.1780th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 at Michigan St | Sep 4 | L 20–30 | +3.8 | — |
2 vs C Connecticut | Sep 12 | W 63–10 | +37.6 | — |
3 vs Temple | Sep 19 | W 49–48 | +15.6 | — |
4 vs San Diego St | Sep 26 | W 41–16 | +8.1 | — |
5 at Ball State | Oct 3 | W 39–24 | +22.7 | — |
6 vs Buffalo | Oct 10 | L 8–23 | +27.8 | — |
7 at E Michigan | Oct 17 | proj 31–22 | +9.6 | 73% |
8 vs W Michigan | Oct 24 | proj 28–22 | +5.9 | 65% |
10 at Sacramento St | Nov 4 | proj 37–17 | +20.3 | 90% |
11 vs UMass | Nov 11 | proj 35–17 | +17.9 | 87% |
12 vs Bowling Green | Nov 20 | proj 33–16 | +17.3 | 86% |
13 at Ohio | Nov 27 | proj 27–26 | +0.8 | 52% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.