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Michigan St
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
2–4 · 61st of 138
Rated +2.2 points vs an average FBS team · scoring -2.1 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 4.0–8.0 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 4.0–8.0 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.04109th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.1282nd of 138
Success rate44.7%39th of 138
Success allowed40.0%42nd of 138
Explosiveness0.91118th of 138
Defensive havoc12.7%120th of 138
3rd down42.5%59th of 138
Turnover margin/g-0.67120th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 vs Toledo | Sep 4 | W 30–20 | -3.8 | — |
2 vs E Michigan | Sep 12 | W 35–7 | +18.2 | — |
3 at Notre Dame | Sep 19 | L 10–27 | -31.3 | — |
4 vs Nebraska | Sep 26 | L 13–31 | -1.2 | — |
5 at Wisconsin | Oct 3 | L 3–31 | -6.7 | — |
6 vs Illinois | Oct 10 | L 37–38 | -2.1 | — |
7 vs Northwestern | Oct 17 | proj 21–27 | -6.2 | 35% |
8 at UCLA | Oct 24 | proj 17–34 | -16.3 | 15% |
10 at Michigan | Nov 7 | proj 16–28 | -11.9 | 23% |
11 vs Washington | Nov 14 | proj 25–24 | +0.5 | 51% |
12 vs Oregon | Nov 20 | proj 19–35 | -15.9 | 16% |
13 at Rutgers | Nov 28 | proj 30–25 | +4.6 | 62% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.