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Northwestern at Michigan St

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

#25 Northwestern4-1
at
Michigan St2-4

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Peacock

Spartan Stadium · East Lansing, MI

☀️ 46° Mostly sunny

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Northwestern by 6.2, the book by 7: siding with Michigan St +7.

On the total, GordStats says 47 to the book's 49.5: siding with the Under.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

NU 65%win chanceMSU 35%
GordStatsNU by 6.265% to win · NU 27–MSU 21
DraftKingsNU -7O/U 49.5
ESPN FPINU 79%win chance
Watch score69

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Northwestern's passing game (15th) meets Michigan St's pass defense (91st).
  • Northwestern's pass defense (51st) meets Michigan St's passing game (106th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Northwestern Offense vs Michigan St Defense

NU offMSU def
EPA per play
10th+0.2182nd+0.12
Run EPA
36th+0.1052nd+0.05
Pass EPA
15th+0.3291st+0.23
Success rate
7th49%42nd40%
Explosiveness
41st0.9474th0.93
Line yards
71st2.9646th2.89
Havoc
71st15%120th13%
Points per trip
17th4.8299th3.84
Third downs
66th42%97th41%

Northwestern: 63 plays a game (112th most) · passes on 42% of plays

Michigan St Offense vs Northwestern Defense

MSU offNU def
EPA per play
109th+0.0457th+0.08
Run EPA
103rd+0.0469th+0.07
Pass EPA
106th+0.1351st+0.15
Success rate
39th45%104th45%
Explosiveness
118th0.9175th0.93
Line yards
58th2.98100th3.04
Havoc
107th17%51st17%
Points per trip
100th3.4623rd2.85
Third downs
59th42%93rd40%

Michigan St: 66 plays a game (77th most) · passes on 47% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Northwestern

  • QBAidan Chiles+0.58 EPA a dropback · 115 dropbacks · 9th of 130 QBs
  • RBCaleb Komolafe+0.14 EPA a carry · 58 carries · 95th of 194 RBs
  • WRGriffin Wilde+1.20 EPA a target · 25 targets · 4th of 390 WRs
  • WRDrew Wagner+0.42 EPA a target · 24 targets · 223rd of 390 WRs

Michigan St

  • QBAlessio Milivojevic+0.11 EPA a dropback · 165 dropbacks · 110th of 130 QBs
  • RBCamryn Edwards-0.01 EPA a carry · 67 carries · 158th of 194 RBs
  • TEJayden Savoury+0.38 EPA a target · 30 targets · 61st of 114 TEs
  • WRRodney Bullard Jr.+0.56 EPA a target · 30 targets · 165th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Northwestern

  • W45-14vs Ball State−7
  • W34-13vs Penn State+27
  • L23-29at Indiana+24
  • W41-7vs Colorado+32

Michigan St

  • L37-38vs Illinois+1
  • L3-31at Wisconsin−21
  • L13-31vs Nebraska−17
  • L10-27at Notre Dame+14

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).