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Toledo at E Michigan

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Toledo4-2
at
E Michigan4-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · ESPN+

Rynearson Stadium · Ypsilanti, MI

☀️ 51° Mostly sunny · gusts 25 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Toledo by 9.6, the book by 6.5: a lean to Toledo -6.5.

On the total, GordStats says 53 to the book's 52.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

TOL 73%win chanceEMU 27%
GordStatsTOL by 9.673% to win · TOL 31–EMU 22
DraftKingsTOL -6.5O/U 52.5
ESPN FPITOL 76%win chance
Watch score29

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Toledo's offense (53rd) meets E Michigan's defense (116th).
  • Toledo's defensive front (28th) meets E Michigan's offensive line (77th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Toledo Offense vs E Michigan Defense

TOL offEMU def
EPA per play
53rd+0.12116th+0.17
Run EPA
67th+0.0771st+0.07
Pass EPA
53rd+0.21115th+0.28
Success rate
92nd40%106th45%
Explosiveness
27th0.9554th0.93
Line yards
42nd3.0367th2.95
Havoc
49th14%39th18%
Points per trip
66th3.9173rd3.42
Third downs
45th44%106th42%

Toledo: 69 plays a game (54th most) · passes on 52% of plays

E Michigan Offense vs Toledo Defense

EMU offTOL def
EPA per play
105th+0.0570th+0.11
Run EPA
70th+0.0634th+0.03
Pass EPA
87th+0.16104th+0.26
Success rate
72nd41%36th40%
Explosiveness
57th0.94100th0.94
Line yards
77th2.9328th2.83
Havoc
77th15%99th14%
Points per trip
73rd3.8329th2.91
Third downs
56th43%67th36%

E Michigan: 68 plays a game (61st most) · passes on 53% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Toledo

  • QBJohn Alan Richter+0.34 EPA a dropback · 183 dropbacks · 45th of 130 QBs
  • RBConnor Walendzak+0.10 EPA a carry · 63 carries · 115th of 194 RBs
  • WRAdjatay Dabbs+0.41 EPA a target · 45 targets · 234th of 390 WRs
  • WRTerrell Crosby Jr.+0.29 EPA a target · 27 targets · 300th of 390 WRs

E Michigan

  • QBNoah Kim+0.20 EPA a dropback · 236 dropbacks · 90th of 130 QBs
  • RBAmareon Blue+0.26 EPA a carry · 57 carries · 39th of 194 RBs
  • WRHarold Mack+0.43 EPA a target · 45 targets · 222nd of 390 WRs
  • WRBen Prosper+0.40 EPA a target · 42 targets · 243rd of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Toledo

  • L8-23vs Buffalo−43
  • W39-24at Ball State−8
  • W41-16vs San Diego St+17
  • W49-48vs Temple−15

E Michigan

  • W25-23at Akron+2
  • W38-14at UMass+29
  • W29-3vs Lindenwood+9
  • L10-54at Wisconsin−23

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).