Bowl chance is how often a team reaches six wins, the line for a bowl game, in the same 10,000 simulated seasons as our playoff odds.
How It Works
Every win before the bowls counts, a conference title game included, but only one over an FCS team a season (the NCAA's rule). Army-Navy, played after the title games, is drawn at the schedule's win chance.
Road to six wins sorts the seasons by each game left (a conditional probability): If W and If L are the bowl chance when the team won or lost it. The game that matters most moves the chance furthest on average; the likeliest path is the wins it needs that came together most often.
Title race: the two best conference records meet (the Sun Belt's division winners); ties go to head-to-head, then our ratings.
Keep in Mind
Only "bowl eligible" and "out" are certain: both are arithmetic. A figure from fewer than 100 seasons is left blank. A 5-7 team can still get a bowl when too few teams reach six (picked by academic score, APR); that isn't counted. ESPN's Bowl % on the rankings page is its own and counts every FCS win.
When It Updates
With the playoff odds, four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern; they move only when games finish.
For the Curious
A game's win chance here can differ by a point or two from the schedule's: in the simulations a rating can drift over the weeks, so a game further off is a little less certain.