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W Michigan
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
4–2 · 94th of 138
Rated -7.2 points vs an average FBS team · scoring -5.3 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 8.0–4.0 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 9.2–3.6 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.0972nd of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.1173rd of 138
Success rate42.0%59th of 138
Success allowed44.7%105th of 138
Explosiveness0.9448th of 138
Defensive havoc13.3%110th of 138
3rd down43.2%54th of 138
Turnover margin/g+0.6730th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 at Michigan | Sep 5 | L 12–13 | -23.5 | — |
2 vs Monmouth | Sep 12 | W 49–14 | +33.5 | — |
3 at Rice | Sep 19 | W 28–21 | +7.6 | — |
4 vs Boise St | Sep 26 | L 7–32 | -3.9 | — |
5 at Buffalo | Oct 3 | W 20–17 | +12.4 | — |
6 vs Kent State | Oct 10 | W 38–7 | +17.8 | — |
7 at C Michigan | Oct 17 | proj 25–18 | +6.6 | 66% |
8 at Toledo | Oct 24 | proj 22–28 | -5.9 | 35% |
9 vs Bowling Green | Oct 31 | proj 28–14 | +14.3 | 82% |
11 at Akron | Nov 10 | proj 28–19 | +9.9 | 73% |
12 vs E Michigan | Nov 17 | proj 29–17 | +12.4 | 78% |
13 vs Miami OH | Nov 24 | proj 26–20 | +5.9 | 65% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.