Follow teams and keep your fantasy leagues on every device.

Sign inWhat you get

W Michigan at C Michigan

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 5:38 PM ET

W Michigan4-2
at
C Michigan3-3

Sat, Oct 17 · 1:30 PM ET · ESPN+

Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Mount Pleasant, MI

☀️ 51° Mostly sunny

The Call How this works

GordStats likes W Michigan by 6.6, the book by 7 — they agree, no lean.

WMU 66%win chanceCMU 34%
GordStatsWMU by 6.666% to win · WMU 25–CMU 18
DraftKingsWMU -7O/U 42.5
ESPN FPIWMU 79%win chance
Watch score33

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • W Michigan's third-down offense (54th) meets C Michigan's third-down defense (135th).
  • C Michigan's offensive line (20th) meets W Michigan's defensive front (90th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

W Michigan Offense vs C Michigan Defense

WMU offCMU def
EPA per play
72nd+0.0997th+0.14
Run EPA
40th+0.10114th+0.11
Pass EPA
110th+0.1272nd+0.18
Success rate
59th42%120th46%
Explosiveness
48th0.9483rd0.94
Line yards
63rd2.97138th3.29
Havoc
44th13%90th15%
Points per trip
40th4.3277th3.49
Third downs
54th43%135th51%

W Michigan: 62 plays a game (120th most) · passes on 41% of plays

C Michigan Offense vs W Michigan Defense

CMU offWMU def
EPA per play
81st+0.0873rd+0.11
Run EPA
45th+0.0968th+0.07
Pass EPA
97th+0.1575th+0.19
Success rate
103rd39%105th45%
Explosiveness
11th0.9725th0.91
Line yards
20th3.1190th3.01
Havoc
51st14%110th13%
Points per trip
99th3.4627th2.90
Third downs
98th36%100th41%

C Michigan: 58 plays a game (134th most) · passes on 30% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

W Michigan

  • QBBroc Lowry+0.18 EPA a dropback · 131 dropbacks · 95th of 130 QBs
  • RBJalen Buckley+0.18 EPA a carry · 76 carries · 69th of 194 RBs
  • WRAveion Chenault+0.87 EPA a target · 25 targets · 51st of 390 WRs
  • WRBaylin Brooks+0.36 EPA a target · 20 targets · 261st of 390 WRs

C Michigan

  • QBAngel H Flores-0.10 EPA a dropback · 57 dropbacks
  • RBJayden Clerveaux+0.32 EPA a carry · 39 carries · 19th of 194 RBs
  • WRLangston Lewis-0.08 EPA a target · 16 targets · 380th of 390 WRs
  • WRJustin Ruffin Jr.-0.06 EPA a target · 14 targets

Recent Form

W Michigan

  • W38-7vs Kent State+13
  • W20-17at Buffalo−9
  • L7-32vs Boise St−21
  • W28-21at Rice−1

C Michigan

  • L14-31at Ohio−8
  • W41-17vs Akron+22
  • L3-52at Miami−6
  • W24-10vs Wyoming+11

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).