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Ball State
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
1–5 · 134th of 138
Rated -22.8 points vs an average FBS team · scoring +1.3 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 3.4–8.6 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 3.2–8.8 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.0795th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.25136th of 138
Success rate37.6%120th of 138
Success allowed43.8%94th of 138
Explosiveness0.9445th of 138
Defensive havoc13.1%113th of 138
3rd down28.9%131st of 138
Turnover margin/g-0.3391st of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 at Ohio State | Sep 5 | L 3–56 | -51.2 | — |
2 vs Stony Brook | Sep 12 | W 41–17 | +15.1 | — |
3 at Liberty | Sep 19 | L 15–51 | -15.1 | — |
4 at Kent State | Sep 26 | L 13–26 | -0.9 | — |
5 vs Toledo | Oct 3 | L 24–39 | -22.7 | — |
6 at Northwestern | Oct 10 | L 14–45 | -38.3 | — |
7 at Bowling Green | Oct 17 | proj 21–28 | -7.1 | 33% |
8 vs Sacramento St | Oct 24 | proj 30–23 | +7.4 | 68% |
10 at UMass | Nov 4 | proj 22–29 | -6.5 | 34% |
11 vs Buffalo | Nov 11 | proj 26–25 | +1.2 | 53% |
12 at Ohio | Nov 17 | proj 17–35 | -17.8 | 13% |
13 vs C Michigan | Nov 28 | proj 23–26 | -3.2 | 42% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.