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Ball State at Bowling Green

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Ball State1-5
at
Bowling Green2-4

Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET · ESPN+

Doyt L. Perry Stadium · Bowling Green, OH

☀️ 47° Mostly sunny · gusts 17 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Bowling Green by 7.1, the book by 6.5: siding with Bowling Green -6.5.

On the total, GordStats says 49 to the book's 47.5: siding with the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

BALL 33%win chanceBGSU 67%
GordStatsBGSU by 7.167% to win · BALL 21–BGSU 28
DraftKingsBGSU -6.5O/U 47.5
ESPN FPIBGSU 70%win chance
Watch score8

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bowling Green's third-down defense (17th) meets Ball State's third-down offense (131st).
  • Bowling Green's big-play offense (77th) meets Ball State's big-play defense (136th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Ball State Offense vs Bowling Green Defense

BALL offBGSU def
EPA per play
95th+0.0787th+0.13
Run EPA
99th+0.04128th+0.14
Pass EPA
88th+0.1664th+0.17
Success rate
120th38%112th45%
Explosiveness
45th0.94127th0.97
Line yards
114th2.80121st3.14
Havoc
124th18%105th14%
Points per trip
94th3.5694th3.77
Third downs
131st29%17th30%

Ball State: 64 plays a game (100th most) · passes on 53% of plays

Bowling Green Offense vs Ball State Defense

BGSU offBALL def
EPA per play
112th+0.03136th+0.25
Run EPA
92nd+0.04130th+0.14
Pass EPA
108th+0.12137th+0.37
Success rate
108th39%94th44%
Explosiveness
77th0.93136th0.99
Line yards
111th2.8184th3.00
Havoc
109th17%113th13%
Points per trip
131st2.31135th4.78
Third downs
106th36%125th46%

Bowling Green: 58 plays a game (133rd most) · passes on 47% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Ball State

  • QBKeldric Luster+0.23 EPA a dropback · 138 dropbacks · 78th of 130 QBs
  • RBTJ Horton+0.24 EPA a carry · 37 carries · 47th of 194 RBs
  • WRDonovan Hamilton+0.84 EPA a target · 30 targets · 59th of 390 WRs
  • WRJamarion McDougle+0.21 EPA a target · 29 targets · 328th of 390 WRs

Bowling Green

  • QBJay Kastantin+0.21 EPA a dropback · 137 dropbacks · 86th of 130 QBs
  • RBAustyn Dendy-0.17 EPA a carry · 66 carries · 189th of 194 RBs
  • TEJeremiah Scoby+0.17 EPA a target · 36 targets · 94th of 114 TEs
  • WRBrennan Ridley+0.12 EPA a target · 24 targets · 347th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Ball State

  • L14-45at Northwestern+7
  • L24-39vs Toledo+8
  • L13-26at Kent State−12
  • L15-51at Liberty−21

Bowling Green

  • W38-10vs Sacramento St+21
  • W24-20at Miami OH+22
  • L6-14vs South Florida+19
  • L7-55at Iowa State−17

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).