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Penn State
Updated Thu, Oct 15 · 11:35 PM ET
3–3 · 34th of 138
Rated +9.8 points vs an average FBS team · scoring -1.0 vs the average game
Projected Record
| Source | W–L | How |
|---|---|---|
| GordStats | 7.1–4.9 | Results so far plus this model's win chance in each game left |
| ESPN FPI | 7.5–4.5 | ESPN's simulation of the full schedule |
Advanced
Offense EPA/play+0.1157th of 138
Defense EPA/play+0.0430th of 138
Success rate40.3%85th of 138
Success allowed38.9%30th of 138
Explosiveness0.92103rd of 138
Defensive havoc17.1%47th of 138
3rd down36.6%97th of 138
Turnover margin/g+0.8319th of 138
Opponent-adjusted where it can be; every team, every figure, on Team Stats.
Schedule
| Opponent | Date | Result | Expected | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 vs Marshall | Sep 5 | W 45–0 | +22.3 | — |
2 at Temple | Sep 12 | W 27–9 | +24.6 | — |
3 vs Buffalo | Sep 19 | W 55–13 | +37.8 | — |
4 vs Wisconsin | Sep 26 | L 20–24 | +19.5 | — |
5 at Northwestern | Oct 2 | L 13–34 | +6.3 | — |
6 vs USC | Oct 10 | L 23–31 | +2.1 | — |
7 at Michigan | Oct 17 | proj 21–25 | -4.2 | 39% |
9 vs Purdue | Oct 31 | proj 33–22 | +10.9 | 75% |
10 at Washington | Nov 7 | proj 26–24 | +2.4 | 56% |
11 vs Minnesota | Nov 14 | proj 30–19 | +11.1 | 76% |
12 vs Rutgers | Nov 21 | proj 37–19 | +18.1 | 87% |
13 at Maryland | Nov 28 | proj 31–22 | +9.0 | 72% |
Games without a final yet show this model's projected score, tagged proj. Expected is this model's margin from this team's side - for a finished game, the one on record before kickoff, so a result can be read against what was expected of it. Win is the chance of winning an upcoming game. How well any of this has worked is on the predictions page.