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Penn State at Michigan

Week 7 preview

Updated Fri, Oct 16 · 3:24 PM ET

Penn State3-3
at
Michigan3-2

Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET · CBS

Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor, MI

☀️ 51° Mostly sunny · gusts 18 mph

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Michigan by 4.2, the book by 6.5: siding with Penn State +6.5.

On the total, GordStats says 46 to the book's 42.5: a lean to the Over.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

PSU 39%win chanceMICH 61%
GordStatsMICH by 4.261% to win · PSU 21–MICH 25
DraftKingsMICH -6.5O/U 42.5
ESPN FPIMICH 55%win chance
Watch score78Upset watch

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Michigan's defensive front (23rd) meets Penn State's offensive line (117th).
  • Penn State's third-down defense (7th) meets Michigan's third-down offense (72nd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Penn State Offense vs Michigan Defense

PSU offMICH def
EPA per play
57th+0.1121st+0.02
Run EPA
98th+0.0419th+0.01
Pass EPA
27th+0.279th+0.08
Success rate
85th40%14th37%
Explosiveness
103rd0.9219th0.90
Line yards
117th2.7923rd2.81
Havoc
48th14%49th17%
Points per trip
59th4.003rd1.93
Third downs
97th37%36th32%

Penn State: 68 plays a game (66th most) · passes on 49% of plays

Michigan Offense vs Penn State Defense

MICH offPSU def
EPA per play
77th+0.0930th+0.04
Run EPA
78th+0.0699th+0.10
Pass EPA
69th+0.188th+0.07
Success rate
57th42%30th39%
Explosiveness
106th0.91132nd0.98
Line yards
37th3.0557th2.92
Havoc
103rd16%47th17%
Points per trip
113th3.0792nd3.75
Third downs
72nd41%7th27%

Michigan: 59 plays a game (129th most) · passes on 42% of plays

From CollegeFootballData: EPA, success rate, explosiveness and line yards adjusted for the opponents faced; havoc and points per trip as played, garbage time out; third downs from the box score. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Penn State

  • QBRocco Becht+0.40 EPA a dropback · 162 dropbacks · 32nd of 130 QBs
  • RBCarson Hansen+0.10 EPA a carry · 55 carries · 117th of 194 RBs
  • WRChase Sowell+0.73 EPA a target · 35 targets · 91st of 390 WRs
  • WRBrett Eskildsen+0.30 EPA a target · 27 targets · 294th of 390 WRs

Michigan

  • QBBryce Underwood+0.23 EPA a dropback · 121 dropbacks · 76th of 130 QBs
  • RBJordan Marshall+0.16 EPA a carry · 53 carries · 80th of 194 RBs
  • WRAndrew Marsh+0.29 EPA a target · 41 targets · 302nd of 390 WRs
  • WRJJ Buchanan+0.75 EPA a target · 39 targets · 85th of 390 WRs

Recent Form

Penn State

  • L23-31vs USC−10
  • L13-34at Northwestern−27
  • L20-24vs Wisconsin−23
  • W55-13vs Buffalo+4

Michigan

  • L14-20at Minnesota−11
  • L19-20vs Iowa−2
  • W52-17vs UTEP+4
  • W17-10vs Oklahoma+10

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added: what a play was worth in points, from the down, distance and field position before it to those after. Per play, adjusted for the opponents faced.
Success rate
Plays that gain 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second, all of them on third and fourth.
Explosiveness
The average EPA of the successful plays: how big the good ones are.
Line yards
Rushing yards credited to the offensive line, per carry.
Havoc
Plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up: the defense's rate made, the offense's allowed.
Points per trip
Points per drive that reaches the opponent's 40.
Players
EPA per play with garbage time out; ranked among FBS players with enough plays (QBs 80 dropbacks, backs 35 carries, receivers 15 targets).