Draft DNA
Not how well each manager drafts — that's the Manager Draft Report — but how they draft. Positional timing, early-round shape, how much of the result came down to players simply staying on the field, and what the championship drafts had in common.
Sample size: 3 drafts, 381 picks in total, so roughly 38 picks per manager. That is enough to describe a habit and not enough to prove one — read the 'never before round N' lines as 'hasn't yet', not as a law. Kickers and defenses are excluded throughout.
Positional Clock - when each manager goes to each position
The round each manager spends their first pick at each position, averaged over 3 drafts. Colored down each column: green = goes earliest, red = waits longest.
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manager | ||||
| Austin | 4.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 6.7 |
| Colin | 7.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 7.3 |
| Everett | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5.0 |
| George | 6.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6.7 |
| Jackson | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| Mark | 4.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4.0 |
| Max | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 8.3 |
| Padgett | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 6.3 |
| Trevor | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 6.7 |
| Tyler | 6.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 6.3 |
- QB - league average first QB lands in round 5.4. Trevor goes earliest (round 3.0 on average), Jackson waits longest (round 8.0). Highest floor: Colin has never opened at QB before round 5.
- RB - league average first RB lands in round 1.9. Austin goes earliest (round 1.3 on average), Jackson waits longest (round 3.0).
- WR - league average first WR lands in round 1.6. Colin goes earliest (round 1.3 on average), Trevor waits longest (round 2.0).
- TE - league average first TE lands in round 6.1. Jackson goes earliest (round 3.3 on average), Max waits longest (round 8.3). Highest floor: Max has never opened at TE before round 8.
Earliest - latest round of the first pick at each position
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manager | ||||
| Austin | 3 - 6 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | 5 - 8 |
| Colin | 5 - 11 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | 4 - 10 |
| Everett | 3 - 9 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | 3 - 7 |
| George | 3 - 9 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | 5 - 8 |
| Jackson | 3 - 12 | 1 - 4 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 6 |
| Mark | 4 - 6 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 3 | 2 - 5 |
| Max | 3 - 5 | 1 - 3 | 1 - 2 | 8 - 9 |
| Padgett | 4 - 5 | 1 - 3 | 1 - 2 | 5 - 8 |
| Trevor | 2 - 4 | 1 - 5 | 1 - 3 | 3 - 9 |
| Tyler | 4 - 9 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 3 | 3 - 12 |
Hard floors: the earliest each manager has ever gone (3 drafts)
- Austin has never taken a QB before round 3, TE before round 5.
- Colin has never taken a QB before round 5, TE before round 4.
- Everett has never taken a QB before round 3, TE before round 3.
- George has never taken a QB before round 3, TE before round 5.
- Jackson has never taken a QB before round 3.
- Mark has never taken a QB before round 4, TE before round 2.
- Max has never taken a QB before round 3, TE before round 8.
- Padgett has never taken a QB before round 4, TE before round 5.
- Trevor has never taken a QB before round 2, TE before round 3.
- Tyler has never taken a QB before round 4, TE before round 3.
Early Blueprint - the first 5 rounds
Positions taken in the first 5 rounds, across all 3 drafts (15 picks per manager).
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manager | ||||
| Austin | 2 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Colin | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
| Everett | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| George | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Jackson | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| Mark | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Max | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Padgett | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Trevor | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Tyler | 1 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
Austin is the most run-heavy start (40% of early picks are RBs); George the most receiver-heavy (53%).
What they open with
Position of each manager's very first pick, counted over 3 drafts.
| RB | WR | TE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manager | |||
| Austin | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Colin | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Everett | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| George | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mark | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Max | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Padgett | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Trevor | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Availability - separating bad picks from hurt ones
Every hit rate on this page is really two things at once: whether the pick was any good, and whether they stayed on the field. This section separates them. Weeks active counts the weeks in the first 13 where a drafted player recorded a stat line — a week they missed is a week their manager got nothing from that roster spot.
Availability decides almost everything
| Weeks active | Picks | Became a starter |
|---|---|---|
| 6 or fewer of 13 | 33 | 0% |
| 7-10 of 13 | 82 | 16% |
| 11-13 of 13 | 266 | 59% |
Of the 33 picks who were active for 6 or fewer of 13 weeks, 0% finished as a weekly starter. Availability isn't a factor in draft success so much as a precondition for it.
Health-adjusted drafting
Healthy Hit % is the hit rate counting only picks who were active for at least 11 of 13 weeks — it asks how good the picks were when they were actually available, which is the part a manager controls.
| Manager | Picks | Weeks Lost | Starter Hit % | Healthy Picks | Healthy Hit % | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin | 38 | 81 | 53% | 26 | 73% | +20 |
| Austin | 38 | 83 | 53% | 27 | 70% | +17 |
| Mark | 38 | 81 | 53% | 26 | 69% | +16 |
| George | 39 | 84 | 49% | 26 | 62% | +13 |
| Jackson | 38 | 48 | 53% | 33 | 61% | +8 |
| Max | 38 | 87 | 42% | 25 | 60% | +18 |
| Padgett | 36 | 47 | 47% | 29 | 59% | +12 |
| Trevor | 38 | 75 | 45% | 26 | 58% | +13 |
| Tyler | 40 | 86 | 35% | 25 | 48% | +13 |
| Everett | 38 | 88 | 21% | 23 | 30% | +9 |
Everett's picks sat out 88 player-weeks against 47 for Padgett — a gap of 3.2 full player-seasons across three drafts, none of it a drafting decision. Adjusting for it puts Colin on top at 73%.
Jackson loses the most, sliding from 1st to 5th — only 48 player-weeks lost meant there was little bad luck inflating their raw number to begin with; Max gains the most, 8th to 6th. What it does not do is close the field up: the gap between best and worst widens from 32 points to 43. Bad luck explains a lot of the middle of this table and none of the bottom of it.
What this does and doesn't measure. Weeks active counts absences of every kind — injury, benching, a release — not injuries specifically. The league's weekly injury reports (data/injuries) can't fill that gap: they list players ruled Out week by week, and a player lost for the season drops off the report entirely, so they under-count the absences that matter most. Nick Chubb's two-game 2023 and Brandon Aiyuk's lost 2025 appear nowhere in them. Weeks active catches both.
Champion Blueprint - how the title winners drafted
Champions taken from Sleeper's playoff bracket, then measured against everyone else who drafted that same year. Starter Hit % is the share of a manager's picks that finished inside their position's weekly starter pool (top 10 QB / 24 RB / 24 WR / 10 TE for a 10-team, 2-flex league). Weeks Lost / Pick is how many of the 13 weeks the average pick spent inactive. Avg Finish vs Pick = draft position minus fantasy finish (+ = picks outperformed their slots); Avg ADP Value = pick minus consensus ADP — draft-day context, not an outcome.
| Season | Who | Picks | Starter Hit % | Weeks Lost / Pick | Avg Finish vs Pick | Avg ADP Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-2024 | Everyone else | 110 | 42% | 1.9 | -5.8 | -2.7 |
| 2023-2024 | Champion | 12 | 67% | 0.4 | +15.8 | -1.3 |
| 2024-2025 | Everyone else | 116 | 42% | 1.9 | -4.6 | -2.3 |
| 2024-2025 | Champion | 13 | 54% | 2.4 | -0.4 | -3.5 |
| 2025-2026 | Everyone else | 117 | 46% | 2.1 | -4.5 | -5.2 |
| 2025-2026 | Champion | 13 | 54% | 4.3 | -20.0 | -3.6 |
Across all 3 titles the champion beat the field's hit rate 3 of 3 times and got more finish out of their draft slots 2 of 3 times, but only led the field in draft-day value against ADP 2 of 3 times. On this sample, titles track picks that worked more than picks that looked like bargains on draft day — though three seasons cannot separate that from simple luck.
Health is not the explanation. The champion's picks were the healthier group in only 1 of 3 seasons, and 2025-2026's winner took the title with their picks missing 4.3 weeks apiece against the field's 2.1.
When champions went to each position
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everyone else | 5.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 6.1 |
| Champions | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 5.7 |
The title-winning drafts, round by round
First six picks of each championship team. Pos Finish is where the player ended the season at their position (green = better); Finish vs Pick = overall pick minus overall finish (+ = outperformed the slot). ADP is draft-day context.
2025-2026 — Austin
| Rd | Pick | Player | Pos | Pos Finish | Finish vs Pick | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Derrick Henry | RB | 11 | -21 | 10.2 |
| 2 | 14 | Drake London | WR | 11 | -22 | 19.2 |
| 3 | 27 | Kyren Williams | RB | 9 | +1 | 24.2 |
| 4 | 34 | Tyreek Hill | WR | 89 | -102 | 32.5 |
| 5 | 47 | Joe Burrow | QB | 40 | -83 | 33.3 |
| 6 | 54 | James Conner | RB | 70 | -87 | 47.3 |
2024-2025 — Colin
| Rd | Pick | Player | Pos | Pos Finish | Finish vs Pick | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 3 | -8 | 6.2 |
| 2 | 14 | Saquon Barkley | RB | 1 | +10 | 9.2 |
| 3 | 27 | Isiah Pacheco | RB | 63 | -116 | 20.2 |
| 4 | 34 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 33 | -39 | 42.6 |
| 5 | 47 | Malik Nabers | WR | 9 | +8 | 48.6 |
| 6 | 54 | Anthony Richardson Sr. | QB | 27 | -30 | 57.6 |
2023-2024 — Jackson
| Rd | Pick | Player | Pos | Pos Finish | Finish vs Pick | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Travis Kelce | TE | 1 | -20 | 5.8 |
| 2 | 16 | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 2 | +11 | 13.2 |
| 3 | 25 | Jalen Hurts | QB | 2 | +21 | 22.8 |
| 4 | 36 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 13 | -3 | 33.0 |
| 5 | 45 | Amari Cooper | WR | 32 | -14 | 42.0 |
| 6 | 56 | Breece Hall | RB | 9 | +24 | 40.8 |
Manager Report Cards
Starter Hit % = share of picks that finished inside their position's weekly starter pool. Weeks Lost = player-weeks their picks spent inactive. Healthy Hit % = the same hit rate counting only picks active at least 11 of 13 weeks. Avg Finish vs Pick = draft position minus where the player actually finished (+ = the pick outperformed its slot). Avg ADP Value = pick minus consensus ADP (+ = waited for value) — draft-day context, not an outcome. Sorted by the health-adjusted rate.
| Manager | Picks | Starter Hit % | Weeks Lost | Avg Finish vs Pick | Avg ADP Value | Healthy Hit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin | 38 | 53% | 81 | +2.1 | -3.2 | 73% |
| Austin | 38 | 53% | 83 | -4.2 | -2.7 | 70% |
| Mark | 38 | 53% | 81 | -2.2 | -7.3 | 69% |
| George | 39 | 49% | 84 | -2.1 | -0.2 | 62% |
| Jackson | 38 | 53% | 48 | +2.7 | +0.3 | 61% |
| Max | 38 | 42% | 87 | -9.7 | -7.2 | 60% |
| Padgett | 36 | 47% | 47 | -3.2 | -0.1 | 59% |
| Trevor | 38 | 45% | 75 | -1.9 | -4.4 | 58% |
| Tyler | 40 | 35% | 86 | -12.7 | -4.5 | 48% |
| Everett | 38 | 21% | 88 | -14.9 | -4.3 | 30% |
Individual cards
Colin
First pick by position: QB rd 7.3, RB rd 1.7, WR rd 1.3, TE rd 7.3
- Takes their first QB 2.0 rounds later than the league average (round 7.3 vs 5.4).
- Champion in 2024-2025.
- 53% of picks became weekly starters (tied 1st of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 2.1 spots better than where it was drafted.
- Lost 81 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 73% (1st of 10).
- Best pick: Keenan Allen (WR, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 133 as the 54th WR off the board, finished 27th (consensus had him 53rd).
- Worst pick: Jonathon Brooks (RB, 2024-2025) — taken at pick 87 as the 28th RB off the board, finished 100th (consensus had him 35th) — active only 3 of 13 weeks.
Austin
First pick by position: QB rd 4.7, RB rd 1.3, WR rd 1.7, TE rd 6.7
- Takes their first QB 0.7 rounds earlier than the league average (round 4.7 vs 5.4).
- Champion in 2025-2026.
- 53% of picks became weekly starters (tied 1st of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 4.2 spots worse than where it was drafted.
- Lost 83 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 70% (2nd of 10).
- Best pick: Emeka Egbuka (WR, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 94 as the 42nd WR off the board, finished 15th (consensus had him 37th).
- Worst pick: Tyreek Hill (WR, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 34 as the 14th WR off the board, finished 89th (consensus had him 13th) — active only 4 of 13 weeks.
Mark
First pick by position: QB rd 4.7, RB rd 1.7, WR rd 1.7, TE rd 4.0
- Takes their first TE 2.1 rounds earlier than the league average (round 4.0 vs 6.1).
- 53% of picks became weekly starters (tied 1st of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 2.2 spots worse than where it was drafted.
- Lost 81 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 69% (3rd of 10).
- Best pick: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 111 as the 49th WR off the board, finished 9th (consensus had him 47th).
- Worst pick: Hollywood Brown (WR, 2024-2025) — taken at pick 92 as the 41st WR off the board, finished 214th (consensus had him 45th) — active only 0 of 13 weeks.
George
First pick by position: QB rd 6.0, RB rd 1.7, WR rd 1.3, TE rd 6.7
- Takes their first QB 0.6 rounds later than the league average (round 6.0 vs 5.4).
- 49% of picks became weekly starters (5th of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 2.1 spots worse than where it was drafted.
- Lost 84 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 62% (4th of 10).
- Best pick: Jerry Jeudy (WR, 2024-2025) — taken at pick 150 as the 56th WR off the board, finished 11th (consensus had him 55th).
- Worst pick: Jayden Reed (WR, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 109 as the 48th WR off the board, finished 133rd (consensus had him 50th) — active only 2 of 13 weeks.
Jackson
First pick by position: QB rd 8.0, RB rd 3.0, WR rd 1.7, TE rd 3.3
- Takes their first TE 2.7 rounds earlier than the league average (round 3.3 vs 6.1).
- Champion in 2023-2024.
- 53% of picks became weekly starters (tied 1st of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 2.7 spots better than where it was drafted.
- Lost 48 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 61% (5th of 10).
- Best pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, 2024-2025) — taken at pick 102 as the 47th WR off the board, finished 7th (consensus had him 40th).
- Worst pick: Malik Nabers (WR, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 16 as the 7th WR off the board, finished 84th (consensus had him 4th) — active only 4 of 13 weeks.
Max
First pick by position: QB rd 4.0, RB rd 2.0, WR rd 1.3, TE rd 8.3
- Takes their first TE 2.3 rounds later than the league average (round 8.3 vs 6.1).
- 42% of picks became weekly starters (8th of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 9.7 spots worse than where it was drafted.
- Lost 87 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 60% (6th of 10).
- Best pick: Terry McLaurin (WR, 2024-2025) — taken at pick 68 as the 31st WR off the board, finished 5th (consensus had him 31st).
- Worst pick: Rashaad Penny (RB, 2023-2024) — taken at pick 115 as the 36th RB off the board, finished 115th (consensus had him 42nd) — active only 2 of 13 weeks.
Padgett
First pick by position: QB rd 4.3, RB rd 2.0, WR rd 1.3, TE rd 6.3
- Takes their first QB 1.0 rounds earlier than the league average (round 4.3 vs 5.4).
- 47% of picks became weekly starters (6th of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 3.2 spots worse than where it was drafted.
- Lost 47 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 59% (7th of 10).
- Best pick: Khalil Shakir (WR, 2024-2025) — taken at pick 145 as the 54th WR off the board, finished 22nd (consensus had him 50th).
- Worst pick: Stefon Diggs (WR, 2024-2025) — taken at pick 16 as the 9th WR off the board, finished 46th (consensus had him 21st) — active only 8 of 13 weeks.
Trevor
First pick by position: QB rd 3.0, RB rd 2.3, WR rd 2.0, TE rd 6.7
- Takes their first QB 2.4 rounds earlier than the league average (round 3.0 vs 5.4).
- 45% of picks became weekly starters (7th of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 1.9 spots worse than where it was drafted.
- Lost 75 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 58% (8th of 10).
- Best pick: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 86 as the 33rd RB off the board, finished 10th (consensus had him 30th).
- Worst pick: Travis Hunter (WR, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 66 as the 30th WR off the board, finished 219th (consensus had him 30th) — active only 0 of 13 weeks.
Tyler
First pick by position: QB rd 6.3, RB rd 1.3, WR rd 2.0, TE rd 6.3
- Takes their first QB 1.0 rounds later than the league average (round 6.3 vs 5.4).
- 35% of picks became weekly starters (9th of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 12.7 spots worse than where it was drafted.
- Lost 86 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 48% (9th of 10).
- Best pick: Javonte Williams (RB, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 98 as the 36th RB off the board, finished 7th (consensus had him 36th).
- Worst pick: Joe Mixon (RB, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 63 as the 24th RB off the board, finished 138th (consensus had him 38th) — active only 0 of 13 weeks.
Everett
First pick by position: QB rd 5.3, RB rd 1.7, WR rd 1.3, TE rd 5.0
- Takes their first TE 1.1 rounds earlier than the league average (round 5.0 vs 6.1).
- 21% of picks became weekly starters (10th of 10 in the league); the average pick finished 14.9 spots worse than where it was drafted.
- Lost 88 player-weeks to absences. Counting only picks who stayed available, the hit rate is 30% (10th of 10).
- Best pick: Khalil Shakir (WR, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 99 as the 45th WR off the board, finished 31st (consensus had him 44th).
- Worst pick: Brandon Aiyuk (WR, 2025-2026) — taken at pick 122 as the 52nd WR off the board, finished 219th (consensus had him 54th) — active only 0 of 13 weeks.