NCAAM Bracketology
2026-03-15 FINAL Prediction
Last Update: Sunday 03/15/26 05:00 PM
Pwr is derived from using machine learning models on Kenpom & Torvik data in aggregate to calculate tournament probabilties.
This value is then balanced by rankings from ESPN BPI, NCAA Net, Kenpom and Torvik to help rank/seed teams.
Future plans include using machine learning to specifically rank teams seperately from tournament projections.
Teams highlighted green have won their conference tournament, earning the bid to the NCAA Tournament!
| Team | Conf | Pwr | Ovr | Δ 1d | Δ 7d | Δ 14d | Δ 1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duke (32-2) |
ACC | 0.963147 | #1 (Seed 1) | - | - | - | ↑ 1 |
 Arizona (32-2) |
B12 | 0.961960 | #2 (Seed 1) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 1 | ↑ 1 | ↑ 1 |
 Michigan (31-3) |
B10 | 0.961913 | #3 (Seed 1) | ↓ 1 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 2 |
 ISU (27-7) |
B12 | 0.960144 | #4 (Seed 1) | - | ↑ 2 | - | ↑ 2 |
 Houston (28-6) |
B12 | 0.959938 | #5 (Seed 2) | - | ↑ 2 | ↑ 1 | - |
 FLA (26-7) |
SEC | 0.959478 | #6 (Seed 2) | - | ↓ 2 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 4 |
 Gonzaga (30-3) |
WCC | 0.958812 | #7 (Seed 2) | - | ↑ 1 | ↑ 1 | ↑ 2 |
 ILL (24-8) |
B10 | 0.957940 | #8 (Seed 2) | - | ↓ 3 | ↓ 3 | ↓ 4 |
 Purdue (27-8) |
B10 | 0.957811 | #9 (Seed 3) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 1 | ↓ 2 | ↓ 2 |
 UConn (29-5) |
BE | 0.957013 | #10 (Seed 3) | ↓ 1 | ↓ 1 | - | ↓ 2 |
 St. John's (28-6) |
BE | 0.954826 | #11 (Seed 3) | ↑ 2 | ↑ 4 | ↑ 8 | ↑ 9 |
 MSU (25-7) |
B10 | 0.954579 | #12 (Seed 3) | ↓ 1 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 1 | ↑ 1 |
 Vanderbilt (26-8) |
SEC | 0.953256 | #13 (Seed 4) | ↑ 3 | ↑ 5 | ↑ 4 | ↑ 2 |
 Alabama (23-9) |
SEC | 0.953070 | #14 (Seed 4) | ↓ 2 | ↓ 2 | ↑ 1 | ↑ 2 |
 Arkansas (26-8) |
SEC | 0.952929 | #15 (Seed 4) | ↑ 3 | ↑ 2 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 4 |
 Nebraska (26-6) |
B10 | 0.952730 | #16 (Seed 4) | ↓ 2 | ↓ 3 | ↓ 3 | ↓ 5 |
 UVA (29-5) |
ACC | 0.952631 | #17 (Seed 5) | ↓ 2 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 3 | ↑ 1 |
 TTU (22-10) |
B12 | 0.951073 | #18 (Seed 5) | ↓ 1 | ↓ 4 | ↓ 6 | ↓ 1 |
 Louisville (23-10) |
ACC | 0.949251 | #19 (Seed 5) | - | - | ↑ 1 | ↓ 5 |
 Kansas (23-10) |
B12 | 0.947977 | #20 (Seed 5) | - | - | ↓ 4 | ↓ 8 |
 Wisconsin (24-10) |
B10 | 0.946966 | #21 (Seed 6) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 11 | ↑ 11 |
 Tennessee (22-11) |
SEC | 0.946032 | #22 (Seed 6) | ↓ 1 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 1 |
 BYU (23-11) |
B12 | 0.945779 | #23 (Seed 6) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 2 | ↑ 1 | ↓ 1 |
 St. Mary's (27-5) |
WCC | 0.945756 | #24 (Seed 6) | ↓ 1 | ↓ 2 | ↑ 1 | ↑ 7 |
 UNC (24-8) |
ACC | 0.945497 | #25 (Seed 7) | - | ↓ 2 | ↓ 3 | ↓ 1 |
 Utah St (28-6) |
MWC | 0.943738 | #26 (Seed 7) | - | ↑ 2 | ↓ 3 | ↓ 3 |
 OSU (21-12) |
B10 | 0.941632 | #27 (Seed 7) | - | ↓ 1 | ↑ 15 | ↑ 16 |
 UCLA (23-11) |
B10 | 0.941547 | #28 (Seed 7) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 1 | ↑ 7 | ↑ 19 |
 Kentucky (21-13) |
SEC | 0.940175 | #29 (Seed 8) | ↓ 1 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 2 | ↓ 1 |
 Miami FL (25-8) |
ACC | 0.939060 | #30 (Seed 8) | - | ↑ 1 | - | ↑ 5 |
 UGA (22-10) |
SEC | 0.937321 | #31 (Seed 8) | - | ↓ 1 | ↑ 2 | ↑ 3 |
 Villanova (24-8) |
BE | 0.935449 | #32 (Seed 8) | - | ↓ 5 | ↓ 4 | ↓ 2 |
 Clemson (24-10) |
ACC | 0.933038 | #33 (Seed 9) | - | ↑ 1 | ↑ 1 | ↓ 4 |
 Iowa (21-12) |
B10 | 0.917749 | #34 (Seed 9) | ↑ 1 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 7 | ↓ 7 |
 Santa Clara (26-8) |
WCC | 0.916462 | #35 (Seed 9) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 1 |
 St. Louis (28-5) |
A10 | 0.913013 | #36 (Seed 9) | ↓ 2 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 10 | ↓ 10 |
 TCU (22-11) |
B12 | 0.911535 | #37 (Seed 10) | - | - | ↑ 12 | ↑ 26 |
 VCU (27-7) |
A10 | 0.904303 | #38 (Seed 10) | ↑ 2 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 9 | ↑ 11 |
 Texas A&M (21-11) |
SEC | 0.900570 | #39 (Seed 10) | ↓ 1 | ↓ 3 | ↑ 2 | ↓ 2 |
 McNeese (28-5) |
Slnd | 0.898763 | #40 (Seed 10) | ↓ 1 | ↑ 5 | ↑ 11 | ↑ 17 |
 NC St (20-13) |
ACC | 0.894108 | #41 (Seed 11) | - | ↓ 1 | ↓ 12 | ↓ 16 |
 M-OH (31-1) |
MAC | 0.890218 | #42 (Seed 11) | - | ↓ 3 | ↓ 2 | ↑ 2 |
 UCF (21-11) FF |
B12 | 0.881819 | #43 (Seed 11) | - | ↑ 1 | ↓ 6 | ↓ 4 |
 Missouri (20-12) FF |
SEC | 0.877383 | #44 (Seed 11) | - | ↓ 2 | ↓ 1 | ↑ 2 |
 Auburn (17-16) FF |
SEC | 0.864251 | #45 (Seed 11) | ↑ 3 | ↑ 6 | ↓ 6 | ↓ 12 |
 HPU (30-4) FF |
BSth | 0.832958 | #46 (Seed 11) | - | ↑ 2 | ↑ 4 | ↑ 7 |
 OU (19-15) |
SEC | 0.778384 | #47 (Seed 12) | ↑ 2 | ↑ 14 | ↑ 37 | ↑ 52 |
 USF (25-8) |
Amer | 0.765940 | #50 (Seed 12) | ↑ 6 | ↑ 7 | ↑ 9 | ↑ 22 |
 Akron (29-5) |
MAC | 0.744843 | #55 (Seed 12) | ↓ 2 | ↓ 1 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 12 |
 UMBC (24-8) |
AE | 0.567964 | #65 (Seed 12) | ↑ 5 | ↑ 10 | ↑ 26 | ↑ 68 |
 NDSU (27-7) |
Sum | 0.539024 | #67 (Seed 13) | - | ↑ 2 | ↑ 6 | ↑ 19 |
 Hawaii (24-8) |
BW | 0.449775 | #75 (Seed 13) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 3 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 6 |
 Cal Baptist (25-8) |
WAC | 0.449318 | #76 (Seed 13) | ↓ 1 | ↑ 1 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 1 |
 LIU (24-10) |
NEC | 0.415535 | #79 (Seed 13) | ↓ 1 | ↑ 10 | ↑ 14 | - |
 Hofstra (24-10) |
CAA | 0.296736 | #88 (Seed 14) | - | ↑ 23 | ↑ 29 | ↑ 42 |
 Tenn. St (23-9) |
OVC | 0.286405 | #91 (Seed 14) | - | ↑ 1 | ↑ 56 | ↑ 89 |
 Troy (22-11) |
SB | 0.276604 | #93 (Seed 14) | - | ↑ 13 | ↑ 15 | ↑ 8 |
 Howard (23-10) |
MEAC | 0.248921 | #95 (Seed 14) | ↑ 6 | ↑ 18 | ↑ 47 | ↑ 102 |
 UNI (23-12) |
MVC | 0.235117 | #101 (Seed 15) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 9 | ↑ 21 | ↑ 17 |
 Wright St (23-11) |
Horz | 0.211976 | #114 (Seed 15) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 9 | ↑ 30 | ↑ 43 |
 Penn (18-11) |
Ivy | 0.204364 | #119 (Seed 15) | ↑ 10 | ↑ 10 | ↑ 35 | ↑ 60 |
 Queens (21-13) |
ASun | 0.194587 | #122 (Seed 15) | - | ↑ 21 | ↑ 31 | ↑ 85 |
 Idaho (21-14) |
BSky | 0.174610 | #135 (Seed 16) | - | ↑ 44 | ↑ 59 | ↑ 75 |
 Kenn. St. (21-13) |
CUSA | 0.161210 | #148 (Seed 16) | ↑ 14 | ↑ 24 | ↑ 12 | ↑ 20 |
 Siena (23-11) FF |
MAAC | 0.151543 | #162 (Seed 16) | ↓ 2 | ↑ 13 | ↑ 23 | ↓ 33 |
 Furman (22-12) FF |
SC | 0.137919 | #180 (Seed 16) | ↑ 1 | ↑ 19 | ↑ 17 | ↑ 20 |
 Lehigh (18-16) FF |
PL | 0.068934 | #277 (Seed 16) | - | ↑ 14 | ↑ 19 | ↑ 25 |
 PV (18-17) FF |
SWAC | 0.063584 | #283 (Seed 16) | ↑ 13 | ↑ 29 | ↑ 39 | ↑ 42 |
First Four Out & Next 4 Out
| Team | Conf | Pwr | Ovr | Δ 1d | Δ 7d | Δ 14d | Δ 1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tulsa (26-7) |
Amer | 0.775331 | #48 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 2 | ↑ 5 | ↑ 4 |
 Texas (18-14) |
SEC | 0.772258 | #49 | ↑ 1 | ↓ 6 | ↓ 5 | ↓ 1 |
 Yale (24-6) |
Ivy | 0.764804 | #51 | - | ↓ 2 | ↑ 5 | ↑ 8 |
 SMU (20-13) |
ACC | 0.760320 | #52 | - | - | ↓ 16 | ↓ 12 |
 SDSU (22-11) |
MWC | 0.751309 | #53 | ↓ 8 | ↑ 3 | ↓ 7 | ↓ 15 |
 Indiana (18-14) |
B10 | 0.747769 | #54 | - | ↓ 7 | ↓ 6 | ↓ 12 |
 New Mexico (23-10) |
MWC | 0.744308 | #56 | ↓ 1 | ↓ 6 | ↓ 11 | ↓ 15 |
 SFA (28-5) |
Slnd | 0.684290 | #57 | - | ↓ 2 | ↑ 3 | ↑ 4 |