The survivor helper shows each NFL team's chance to win in every week left, and the one-team-a-week run of picks most likely to last the season.
How It Works
This week's chances are the ones on the predictions page, with the book's spread beside them. Later weeks use the model behind the playoff odds: a game further off is less certain, since every team's rating can drift a little each week, so its chance sits closer to 50%.
The best path uses each team at most once and makes your chance of surviving every week (the weekly chances multiplied together) as high as it can be. It weighs every combination at once (the Hungarian algorithm, a standard matching method), so it is the true best, not a guess. Mark the teams you've used and it solves again without them.
Later is a pick's future value: how much your chance of surviving the weeks after drops if you use that team now. A big number means a team worth saving.
Keep in Mind
A helper, not advice. It ignores what other entries pick, ties (most pools count them as losses) and rules like two-pick weeks. A missing quarterback counts only in this week's numbers.
When It Updates
Four times a day, around 5:30 and 11:30 AM and PM Eastern. Your used teams stay on this device.
For the Curious
Once a game kicks off, its teams drop out of that week's choices. The later weeks' chances are what the playoff odds' 10,000 simulated seasons give each game, worked out directly instead of counted.