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Rams at Eagles

Week 4 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 12 · 5:44 AM ET

Rams1-2 going in
24–20Final
Eagles2-1 going in

Sun, Oct 4 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA

The Call How this works

GordStats had Rams by 1.5✓, the book by 3.5 — 2 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

LAR 55%win chancePHI 45%
GordStatsLAR by 1.555% to win · LAR 23–PHI 22
BookLAR -3.5O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Rams' big-play defense (3rd) meets Eagles' big-play offense (31st).
  • Rams' pass protection (3rd) meets Eagles' pass rush (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Rams Offense vs Eagles Defense

LAR offPHI def
EPA per play
14th+0.0220th+0.03
Pass EPA
18th+0.0624th+0.13
Run EPA
13th-0.0815th-0.12
Success rate
12th45%17th43%
Explosive plays
8th10%10th7%
Points per drive
20th1.9317th2.07
Red zone TD
21st53%12th56%
Third downs
10th44%14th38%
Sacks
3rd3%30th3%
Turnovers
28th18%29th6%

Rams: 29.8 sec a snap (3rd fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

Eagles Offense vs Rams Defense

PHI offLAR def
EPA per play
25th-0.088th-0.06
Pass EPA
23rd+0.0011th+0.01
Run EPA
26th-0.2114th-0.13
Success rate
30th37%9th41%
Explosive plays
31st5%3rd5%
Points per drive
26th1.775th1.81
Red zone TD
12th64%16th58%
Third downs
22nd37%7th33%
Sacks
25th7%23rd5%
Turnovers
15th10%28th7%

Eagles: 31.9 sec a snap (15th fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Rams

  • QBMatthew Stafford+0.07 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.9 · 154 dropbacks · 16th of 31
  • RBKyren Williams+0.05 EPA a carry · 5.5 yds · 47 carries · 10th in EPA
  • WRDavante Adams+0.43 EPA a target · 57% caught · 35 targets · 40th in EPA

Eagles

  • QBJalen Hurts+0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.2 · 171 dropbacks · 18th of 31
  • RBSaquon Barkley+0.00 EPA a carry · 5.1 yds · 36 carries · 16th in EPA
  • WRDontayvion Wicks+0.54 EPA a target · 63% caught · 27 targets · 26th in EPA
  • TEDallas Goedert+0.45 EPA a target · 69% caught · 16 targets · 36th in EPA

Recent Form

Rams

  • L26-30at Broncos−5
  • W28-6vs Giants+15
  • L7-27vs 49ers—

Eagles

  • L7-27at Bears−19
  • W24-20at Titans−3
  • W24-22vs Commanders—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.