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Cardinals at Rams

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Cardinals1-4 going in
18–16Final
Rams2-3 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET · Fox

SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA

The Call How this works

GordStats had Rams by 10.6✗, the book by 12.5 — 1.9 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

ARI 21%win chanceLAR 79%
GordStatsLAR by 10.679% to win · ARI 20–LAR 31
BookLAR -12.5O/U 51.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Rams' red-zone defense (6th) meets Cardinals' red-zone offense (32nd).
  • Rams' big-play offense (11th) meets Cardinals' big-play defense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense

ARI offLAR def
EPA per play
18th-0.018th-0.04
Pass EPA
22nd+0.0214th+0.06
Run EPA
15th-0.099th-0.13
Success rate
12th45%19th44%
Explosive plays
32nd4%9th7%
Points per drive
26th1.8716th2.08
Red zone TD
32nd43%6th44%
Third downs
24th38%5th31%
Sacks
10th5%27th4%
Turnovers
10th8%29th8%

Cardinals: 32.3 sec a snap (20th fastest) · passes 0% less than expected

Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense

LAR offARI def
EPA per play
10th+0.0728th+0.11
Pass EPA
11th+0.1530th+0.30
Run EPA
12th-0.064th-0.19
Success rate
5th49%22nd45%
Explosive plays
11th9%31st10%
Points per drive
11th2.2731st2.77
Red zone TD
4th69%23rd68%
Third downs
6th46%15th40%
Sacks
5th4%14th7%
Turnovers
26th15%21st10%

Rams: 30.8 sec a snap (6th fastest) · passes 7% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Cardinals

  • QBJacoby Brissett-0.02 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.1 · 260 dropbacks · 25th of 34
  • RBJeremiyah Love-0.07 EPA a carry · 3.7 yds · 65 carries · 22nd in EPA

Rams

  • QBMatthew Stafford+0.15 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.6 · 273 dropbacks · 10th of 34
  • RBKyren Williams+0.01 EPA a carry · 5.1 yds · 84 carries · 12th in EPA
  • WRDavante Adams+0.48 EPA a target · 61% caught · 46 targets · 29th in EPA
  • TETyler Higbee+0.37 EPA a target · 80% caught · 30 targets · 39th in EPA

Recent Form

Cardinals

  • L21–45vs Lions−20
  • L24–36at Giants−10
  • L30–36at 49ers+3
  • L7–31vs Seahawks−17

Rams

  • L34–37vs Bills−4
  • W24–20at Eagles+3
  • L26–30at Broncos−5
  • W28–6vs Giants+15

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.