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Rams at Raiders

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Rams2-4 going in
35–21Final
Raiders3-3 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 4:25 PM ET · Fox

Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Rams by 5.7✓, the book by 3.5 — 2.2 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

LAR 67%win chanceLV 33%
GordStatsLAR by 5.767% to win · LAR 27–LV 21
BookLAR -3.5O/U 48.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Raiders' pass protection (4th) meets Rams' pass rush (27th).
  • Rams' big-play offense (10th) meets Raiders' big-play defense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Rams Offense vs Raiders Defense

LAR offLV def
EPA per play
10th+0.0629th+0.12
Pass EPA
14th+0.1230th+0.26
Run EPA
8th-0.0315th-0.09
Success rate
4th49%30th49%
Explosive plays
10th9%31st11%
Points per drive
11th2.2630th2.64
Red zone TD
4th69%25th67%
Third downs
7th44%24th43%
Sacks
6th4%16th6%
Turnovers
24th14%5th15%

Rams: 31.3 sec a snap (8th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

Raiders Offense vs Rams Defense

LV offLAR def
EPA per play
12th+0.045th-0.07
Pass EPA
7th+0.2012th+0.01
Run EPA
29th-0.217th-0.16
Success rate
14th44%8th42%
Explosive plays
26th7%9th7%
Points per drive
7th2.559th1.92
Red zone TD
20th55%6th43%
Third downs
11th43%6th32%
Sacks
4th4%27th4%
Turnovers
7th7%22nd10%

Raiders: 32.3 sec a snap (19th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Rams

  • QBMatthew Stafford+0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.5 · 296 dropbacks · 14th of 32
  • RBKyren Williams+0.02 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 89 carries · 10th in EPA
  • WRDavante Adams+0.48 EPA a target · 61% caught · 46 targets · 27th in EPA

Raiders

  • QBKirk Cousins+0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.4 · 269 dropbacks · 9th of 32
  • RBAshton Jeanty-0.28 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 94 carries · 36th in EPA
  • TEBrock Bowers+0.45 EPA a target · 66% caught · 58 targets · 30th in EPA

Recent Form

Rams

  • L16–18vs Cardinals−13
  • L34–37vs Bills−4
  • W24–20at Eagles+3
  • L26–30at Broncos−5

Raiders

  • L30–33vs Bills+5
  • L17–45at Patriots−21
  • L27–30vs Chiefs+1
  • W35–27at Saints+12

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.