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Northern Illinois at Dayton

Men's college basketball preview

Updated Sat, Nov 7 · 5:41 AM ET

Northern Illinois0-2 · Horizon
at
Dayton1-0 · A10

Sat, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM ET · ESPN+

UD Arena · Dayton, OH

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Dayton by 21.2, the book by 19.5 — 1.7 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

NIU 3%win chanceDayton 97%
GordStatsDayton by 21.297% to win · NIU 64–Dayton 85
BookDayton -19.5O/U 146.5
Watch score11

Unit vs Unit

  • Dayton's offense (99th) meets Northern Illinois' defense (360th).
  • Dayton's defensive rebounding (113th) meets Northern Illinois' offensive rebounding (295th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Northern Illinois Offense vs Dayton Defense

NIU offDayton def
Adj. efficiency
152nd106.054th98.2
Effective FG%
92nd55.6%57th37.1%
Turnovers
51st10.3%227th15.8%
Offensive rebounding
295th21.5%113th25.6%
Free-throw rate
166th35.3%268th43.1%
3-point %
48th41.7%39th12.0%

Northern Illinois: 69.5 possessions a game (290th fastest) · 52% of shots from three

Dayton Offense vs Northern Illinois Defense

Dayton offNIU def
Adj. efficiency
99th109.6360th115.3
Effective FG%
113th54.6%348th65.0%
Turnovers
180th17.3%270th14.0%
Offensive rebounding
7th51.4%218th32.8%
Free-throw rate
194th32.3%338th58.9%
3-point %
132nd34.6%315th40.4%

Dayton: 69.6 possessions a game (278th fastest) · 40% of shots from three

Bart Torvik's adjusted figures, ranked across Division I. Every team: Team Stats.

Recent Form

Northern Illinois

  • L75–94at Tulsa+1
  • L87–89vs Grambling St.−5

Dayton

  • W89–58vs NJIT+10

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
Adj. efficiency
Points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team on a neutral floor: the offense's scored, the defense's allowed.
Effective FG%
Field-goal percentage with a made three counted as 1.5 makes.
Turnovers
Per possession: the offense's committed, the defense's forced.
Offensive rebounding
The share of its own misses the offense gets back, against the share the defense lets its opponents get back.
Free-throw rate
Free throws attempted per field-goal attempt: drawn by the offense, allowed by the defense.