For each college basketball game the scoreboard shows our pick: the favorite, by how many points, and its chance to win.
How it works
It's a simple formula (the standard possession model) built on Bart Torvik's adjusted efficiency ratings. The game's pace comes from both teams' usual tempo (possessions per game), and each side's points from its adjusted offense against the other's adjusted defense (points per 100 possessions, corrected for opponents). Home court adds about 2.5 points, none at a neutral site.
Win chance: results land about 12 points from the prediction on a typical night. Allowing for misses that size (a normal distribution with an 11.6-point standard deviation for men, 12.0 for women), a 3-point favorite wins about 60% of the time.
On last season's games, the same season it was tuned on, it picked 70.2% of men's winners (5,315 games) and 75.3% of women's (3,827).
Keep in mind
It isn't graded against the betting line yet. It knows nothing about injuries. Before Torvik's in-season numbers arrive, men's picks use T-Rank's preseason ratings and women's games get no pick.
When it updates
Ratings once a day in season; scores and picks on the scoreboard every 10 minutes from 11 AM to 1:30 AM Eastern.