For every conference, each team's likely final conference record, its chance to win or share the regular-season title, and where it is likely to be seeded.
How It Works
Games already played count as they finished. Every conference game still to come is decided by our game prediction's win chance, and the rest of the season is played out 10,000 times (a Monte Carlo simulation). Before conference play starts, that is the whole conference schedule.
Each run also nudges every team's rating up or down a little, so a team better than its numbers is better in all its games at once. The nudge shrinks as games are played; on last season's games it made the odds less overconfident.
Title % counts a share of first place. Seeds follow each conference's own rules: how many teams its tournament takes (Miss is the rest), and its tiebreakers in order: the tied teams' games against each other, then records against the top of the standings and on down, then the NET ranking (our rating stands in) or a coin toss. A bar under a seed marks a bye. NCAA is our bracketology seed.
Keep in Mind
Where a conference hasn't published this season's bracket, last season's is used, and the page says so. Rarer tiebreak steps aren't modeled. The schedule is ESPN's.
When It Updates
Daily, with the scoreboard's results from the night before.