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Seahawks at Commanders

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Seahawks2-0 going in
31–33Final
Commanders0-2 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD

The Call How this works

GordStats had Seahawks by 10✗, the book by 8.5 — they agree, no lean.

On the total, GordStats said 46 to the book's 40.5: a lean to the Over✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

SEA 78%win chanceWSH 22%
GordStatsSEA by 1078% to win · SEA 28–WSH 18
BookSEA -8.5O/U 40.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Seahawks' third-down defense (3rd) meets Commanders' third-down offense (30th).
  • Commanders' run defense (13th) meets Seahawks' run game (30th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense

SEA offWSH def
EPA per play
14th+0.0118th+0.03
Pass EPA
10th+0.2120th+0.09
Run EPA
30th-0.2713th-0.10
Success rate
16th45%25th46%
Explosive plays
9th10%9th7%
Points per drive
13th2.3329th2.71
Red zone TD
14th60%31st80%
Third downs
31st31%22nd43%
Sacks
12th5%23rd5%
Turnovers
18th11%16th11%

Seahawks: 34.9 sec a snap (32nd fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense

WSH offSEA def
EPA per play
21st-0.044th-0.11
Pass EPA
21st+0.044th-0.03
Run EPA
23rd-0.142nd-0.31
Success rate
30th37%2nd36%
Explosive plays
26th6%1st3%
Points per drive
23rd1.783rd1.49
Red zone TD
16th58%22nd67%
Third downs
30th32%3rd29%
Sacks
2nd3%10th7%
Turnovers
4th4%5th16%

Commanders: 30.9 sec a snap (6th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Seahawks

  • QBSam Darnold+0.00 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.9 · 72 dropbacks · 22nd of 32
  • RBEmanuel Wilson-0.21 EPA a carry · 3.2 yds · 38 carries · 37th in EPA
  • WRJaxon Smith-Njigba+0.77 EPA a target · 76% caught · 41 targets · 13th in EPA
  • WRCooper Kupp+0.49 EPA a target · 75% caught · 12 targets · 32nd in EPA

Commanders

  • QBJayden Daniels+0.20 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.0 · 61 dropbacks · 10th of 32
  • RBJacory Croskey-Merritt-0.18 EPA a carry · 2.8 yds · 56 carries · 34th in EPA
  • WRTerry McLaurin+0.52 EPA a target · 50% caught · 20 targets · 28th in EPA

Recent Form

Seahawks

  • W31-7at Cardinals+17
  • W13-10vs Patriots—

Commanders

  • L20-37at Cowboys−15
  • L22-24at Eagles—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.