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Cardinals at 49ers

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Cardinals1-1 going in
30–36Final
49ers2-0 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 4:05 PM ET · Fox

Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA

The Call How this works

GordStats had 49ers by 8.9✓, the book by 8.5 — they agree, no lean.

ARI 25%win chanceSF 75%
GordStatsSF by 8.975% to win · ARI 19–SF 28
BookSF -8.5O/U 47.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • 49ers' big-play defense (2nd) meets Cardinals' big-play offense (32nd).
  • 49ers' passing game (1st) meets Cardinals' pass defense (31st).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense

ARI offSF def
EPA per play
15th+0.0023rd+0.05
Pass EPA
23rd+0.0223rd+0.11
Run EPA
11th-0.0518th-0.08
Success rate
10th46%21st45%
Explosive plays
32nd3%2nd3%
Points per drive
16th2.026th1.78
Red zone TD
17th57%4th45%
Third downs
13th40%24th44%
Sacks
8th4%26th4%
Turnovers
13th9%28th6%

Cardinals: 32.1 sec a snap (17th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense

SF offARI def
EPA per play
1st+0.3427th+0.08
Pass EPA
1st+0.5831st+0.37
Run EPA
6th+0.001st-0.32
Success rate
1st58%16th44%
Explosive plays
2nd13%27th10%
Points per drive
2nd3.3928th2.71
Red zone TD
1st86%26th71%
Third downs
1st57%25th45%
Sacks
1st0%12th6%
Turnovers
3rd3%8th15%

49ers: 33.7 sec a snap (28th fastest) · passes 4% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Cardinals

  • QBJacoby Brissett-0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.1 · 155 dropbacks · 23rd of 32
  • RBJeremiyah Love-0.01 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 54 carries · 19th in EPA

49ers

  • QBBrock Purdy+0.59 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.1 · 115 dropbacks · 1st of 32
  • RBChristian McCaffrey+0.01 EPA a carry · 4.4 yds · 47 carries · 14th in EPA
  • WRMike Evans+1.03 EPA a target · 71% caught · 24 targets · 5th in EPA
  • TEGeorge Kittle+0.49 EPA a target · 71% caught · 21 targets · 31st in EPA

Recent Form

Cardinals

  • L7-31vs Seahawks−17
  • W26-14at Chargers—

49ers

  • W35-13vs Dolphins+13
  • W27-7vs Rams—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.