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Raiders at Saints
Week 3 · Final
Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET
Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25 PM ET · CBS
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
Indoors
Win Probability How this works
Loading ESPN’s win probability…
The Call How this works
GordStats had Saints by 4.3✗, the book by 3 — they agree, no lean.
LV 37%win chanceNO 63%
GordStatsNO by 4.363% to win · LV 19–NO 23
BookNO -3O/U 43.5
Unit vs Unit How this works
- Raiders' takeaway defense (2nd) meets Saints' ball security (30th).
- Raiders' passing game (4th) meets Saints' pass defense (26th).
National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.
Raiders Offense vs Saints Defense
LV offNO def
EPA per play
11th+0.0822nd+0.05Pass EPA
4th+0.2626th+0.17Run EPA
24th-0.1725th-0.04Success rate
12th45%31st51%Explosive plays
16th8%8th7%Points per drive
9th2.6327th2.59Red zone TD
18th56%17th62%Third downs
11th41%26th47%Sacks
3rd3%16th6%Turnovers
14th9%26th6%Raiders: 33.1 sec a snap (27th fastest) · passes 0% more than expected
Saints Offense vs Raiders Defense
NO offLV def
EPA per play
12th+0.038th-0.05Pass EPA
17th+0.0811th+0.04Run EPA
8th-0.046th-0.18Success rate
9th47%17th44%Explosive plays
17th8%21st9%Points per drive
11th2.458th1.83Red zone TD
4th77%27th71%Third downs
3rd53%19th40%Sacks
20th7%5th8%Turnovers
30th21%2nd20%Saints: 29.5 sec a snap (2nd fastest) · passes 2% more than expected
From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.
Players to Watch
Raiders
- QBKirk Cousins+0.22 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.2 · 139 dropbacks · 9th of 32
- RBAshton Jeanty-0.23 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 66 carries · 38th in EPA
- TEBrock Bowers+0.46 EPA a target · 65% caught · 23 targets · 38th in EPA
Saints
- QBTyler Shough+0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.0 · 143 dropbacks · 17th of 32
- RBTravis Etienne-0.04 EPA a carry · 4.3 yds · 30 carries · 21st in EPA
- WRChris Olave+0.77 EPA a target · 74% caught · 35 targets · 12th in EPA
- WRDevaughn Vele+0.46 EPA a target · 68% caught · 22 targets · 36th in EPA
Recent Form
Raiders
- W26-14at Chargers+18
- W27-13vs Dolphins—
Saints
- W24-17at Ravens+15
- L30-31at Lions—
The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.
What These Numbers Mean
- EPA
- Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
- Success rate
- Share of plays with positive EPA.
- Explosive plays
- Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
- Red zone TD
- Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
- Sacks
- Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
- Turnovers
- Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
- Players
- QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.

