Follow teams and keep your fantasy leagues on every device.

Sign inWhat you get

Rams at Broncos

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Rams1-1 going in
26–30Final
Broncos1-1 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC

Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO

The Call How this works

GordStats had Rams by 1.3✗, the book by 1.5 — they agree, no lean.

LAR 54%win chanceDEN 46%
GordStatsLAR by 1.354% to win · LAR 23–DEN 21
BookLAR -1.5O/U 44.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Rams' big-play defense (3rd) meets Broncos' big-play offense (24th).
  • Rams' third-down offense (10th) meets Broncos' third-down defense (27th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Rams Offense vs Broncos Defense

LAR offDEN def
EPA per play
13th+0.029th-0.03
Pass EPA
19th+0.069th+0.02
Run EPA
16th-0.0832nd+0.07
Success rate
14th45%14th43%
Explosive plays
8th10%22nd9%
Points per drive
18th1.9316th2.19
Red zone TD
22nd53%6th47%
Third downs
10th44%27th48%
Sacks
4th3%20th5%
Turnovers
27th18%20th9%

Rams: 29.8 sec a snap (4th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

Broncos Offense vs Rams Defense

DEN offLAR def
EPA per play
16th+0.006th-0.07
Pass EPA
20th+0.058th+0.01
Run EPA
17th-0.1011th-0.13
Success rate
23rd41%7th41%
Explosive plays
24th7%3rd5%
Points per drive
24th1.727th1.81
Red zone TD
9th70%13th58%
Third downs
12th40%6th33%
Sacks
5th4%21st5%
Turnovers
16th10%24th7%

Broncos: 31.5 sec a snap (13th fastest) · passes 4% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Rams

  • QBMatthew Stafford+0.07 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.9 · 154 dropbacks · 16th of 32
  • RBKyren Williams+0.05 EPA a carry · 5.5 yds · 47 carries · 8th in EPA

Broncos

  • QBBo Nix+0.02 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.7 · 129 dropbacks · 20th of 32
  • RBJ.K. Dobbins-0.17 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 46 carries · 32nd in EPA
  • WRPat Bryant+0.94 EPA a target · 75% caught · 12 targets · 7th in EPA

Recent Form

Rams

  • W28-6vs Giants+15
  • L7-27vs 49ers—

Broncos

  • W20-13vs Jaguars+8
  • L10-31at Chiefs—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.