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Eagles at Bears

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Eagles2-0 going in
7–27Final
Bears1-1 going in

Mon, Sep 28 · 8:15 PM ET · ESPN, ABC

Soldier Field · Chicago, IL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Bears by 0.9✓, the book had Eagles by 3.5: a lean to Bears +3.5✓.

On the total, GordStats said 46 to the book's 42.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

PHI 47%win chanceCHI 53%
GordStatsCHI by 0.953% to win · PHI 22–CHI 23
BookPHI -3.5O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bears' pass rush (4th) meets Eagles' pass protection (28th).
  • Bears' pass protection (11th) meets Eagles' pass rush (30th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense

PHI offCHI def
EPA per play
25th-0.073rd-0.12
Pass EPA
24th-0.031st-0.22
Run EPA
20th-0.1330th+0.01
Success rate
29th38%4th40%
Explosive plays
27th6%16th8%
Points per drive
21st1.835th1.67
Red zone TD
13th62%11th56%
Third downs
19th36%2nd24%
Sacks
28th9%4th9%
Turnovers
20th12%12th13%

Eagles: 33.0 sec a snap (26th fastest) · passes 10% less than expected

Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense

CHI offPHI def
EPA per play
10th+0.0924th+0.06
Pass EPA
6th+0.2424th+0.11
Run EPA
22nd-0.1420th-0.06
Success rate
6th48%23rd45%
Explosive plays
7th10%6th7%
Points per drive
7th2.6719th2.21
Red zone TD
27th44%21st67%
Third downs
6th48%18th40%
Sacks
11th5%30th3%
Turnovers
19th12%31st5%

Bears: 31.4 sec a snap (12th fastest) · passes 5% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Eagles

  • QBJalen Hurts+0.03 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.4 · 129 dropbacks · 18th of 32
  • RBSaquon Barkley+0.00 EPA a carry · 5.1 yds · 36 carries · 17th in EPA
  • WRDontayvion Wicks+0.58 EPA a target · 63% caught · 19 targets · 25th in EPA

Bears

  • QBCaleb Williams+0.34 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.6 · 64 dropbacks · 2nd of 32
  • RBD'Andre Swift-0.26 EPA a carry · 3.9 yds · 59 carries · 39th in EPA
  • WRKalif Raymond+0.79 EPA a target · 90% caught · 21 targets · 11th in EPA
  • WRRome Odunze+0.62 EPA a target · 72% caught · 18 targets · 22nd in EPA

Recent Form

Eagles

  • W24-20at Titans−3
  • W24-22vs Commanders—

Bears

  • L3-9vs Vikings−8
  • W59-37at Panthers—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.