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Eagles vs Jaguars

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Eagles2-2 going in
17–19Final
Jaguars3-1 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 9:30 AM ET · NFL Net

Neutral site · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · London, England

The Call How this works

GordStats had Jaguars by 4.9✓, the book by 7.5 — 2.6 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

PHI 35%win chanceJAX 65%
GordStatsJAX by 4.965% to win · PHI 19–JAX 24
BookJAX -7.5O/U 41.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jaguars' big-play defense (5th) meets Eagles' big-play offense (31st).
  • Jaguars' ball security (9th) meets Eagles' takeaway defense (32nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Eagles Offense vs Jaguars Defense

PHI offJAX def
EPA per play
24th-0.088th-0.05
Pass EPA
23rd-0.0114th+0.02
Run EPA
26th-0.205th-0.20
Success rate
29th37%11th42%
Explosive plays
31st4%5th6%
Points per drive
26th1.684th1.79
Red zone TD
7th69%3rd40%
Third downs
21st37%10th37%
Sacks
21st7%24th5%
Turnovers
12th8%4th16%

Eagles: 31.2 sec a snap (9th fastest) · passes 2% less than expected

Jaguars Offense vs Eagles Defense

JAX offPHI def
EPA per play
5th+0.1221st+0.02
Pass EPA
4th+0.2223rd+0.12
Run EPA
8th-0.0317th-0.09
Success rate
9th47%16th43%
Explosive plays
6th10%14th8%
Points per drive
5th2.7016th2.08
Red zone TD
10th67%15th59%
Third downs
4th49%13th39%
Sacks
10th5%31st3%
Turnovers
9th7%32nd5%

Jaguars: 32.0 sec a snap (19th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Eagles

  • QBJalen Hurts+0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.2 · 171 dropbacks · 19th of 33
  • RBSaquon Barkley+0.00 EPA a carry · 5.1 yds · 36 carries · 15th in EPA
  • WRDontayvion Wicks+0.53 EPA a target · 61% caught · 31 targets · 23rd in EPA
  • TEDallas Goedert+0.48 EPA a target · 71% caught · 24 targets · 29th in EPA

Jaguars

  • QBTrevor Lawrence+0.26 EPA a dropback · CPOE +3.2 · 200 dropbacks · 6th of 33
  • RBBhayshul Tuten-0.04 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 84 carries · 19th in EPA
  • WRParker Washington+0.44 EPA a target · 57% caught · 46 targets · 33rd in EPA
  • WRJakobi Meyers+0.53 EPA a target · 70% caught · 27 targets · 22nd in EPA

Recent Form

Eagles

  • L20-24vs Rams−3
  • L7-27at Bears−19
  • W24-20at Titans−3
  • W24-22vs Commanders—

Jaguars

  • W22-17at Bengals+1
  • W35-6vs Patriots+28
  • L13-20at Broncos−8
  • W34-10vs Browns—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.