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Giants at Commanders

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

Giants3-1 going in
27–27Final/OT
Commanders1-3 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD

The Call How this works

GordStats had Commanders by 4.2push, the book by 3.5 — 0.7 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

On the total, GordStats said 47 to the book's 41.5: a lean to the Over✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

NYG 37%win chanceWSH 63%
GordStatsWSH by 4.263% to win · NYG 21–WSH 26
BookWSH -3.5O/U 41.5
Assumed outJaxson DartGiants quarterback

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Commanders' big-play defense (6th) meets Giants' big-play offense (27th).
  • Commanders' pass protection (13th) meets Giants' pass rush (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense

NYG offWSH def
EPA per play
20th-0.0325th+0.06
Pass EPA
15th+0.1222nd+0.12
Run EPA
28th-0.228th-0.17
Success rate
20th42%26th46%
Explosive plays
27th6%6th7%
Points per drive
19th2.0026th2.61
Red zone TD
14th61%32nd83%
Third downs
9th43%25th44%
Sacks
25th8%25th4%
Turnovers
24th15%11th12%

Giants: 32.0 sec a snap (17th fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense

WSH offNYG def
EPA per play
17th-0.0122nd+0.03
Pass EPA
17th+0.0719th+0.06
Run EPA
20th-0.1224th-0.05
Success rate
26th39%22nd44%
Explosive plays
21st7%22nd9%
Points per drive
22nd1.8817th2.09
Red zone TD
19th54%28th75%
Third downs
31st32%21st42%
Sacks
13th5%30th4%
Turnovers
2nd3%12th12%

Commanders: 31.1 sec a snap (8th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Giants

  • QBJameis Winston-0.05 EPA a dropback · CPOE -7.7 · 162 dropbacks · 24th of 33
  • RBCam Skattebo-0.19 EPA a carry · 3.5 yds · 75 carries · 34th in EPA

Commanders

  • QBJayden Daniels+0.19 EPA a dropback · CPOE +2.1 · 98 dropbacks · 12th of 33
  • RBJacory Croskey-Merritt-0.10 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 67 carries · 25th in EPA
  • WRTerry McLaurin+0.52 EPA a target · 58% caught · 24 targets · 25th in EPA

Recent Form

Giants

  • W36-24vs Cardinals+10
  • W12-7vs Titans0
  • L6-28at Rams−15
  • W28-20vs Cowboys—

Commanders

  • L13-30vs Colts−15
  • W33-31vs Seahawks+12
  • L20-37at Cowboys−15
  • L22-24at Eagles—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.