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49ers at Seahawks

Week 5 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 19 · 5:37 AM ET

49ers4-0 going in
32–29Final
Seahawks3-1 going in

Sun, Oct 11 · 4:25 PM ET · Fox

Lumen Field · Seattle, WA

The Call How this works

GordStats had Seahawks by 4✗, the book by 3 — 1 point apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

SF 38%win chanceSEA 62%
GordStatsSEA by 462% to win · SF 21–SEA 25
BookSEA -3O/U 46.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • 49ers' red-zone offense (1st) meets Seahawks' red-zone defense (30th).
  • 49ers' run defense (6th) meets Seahawks' run game (32nd).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

SF offSEA def
EPA per play
1st+0.232nd-0.15
Pass EPA
1st+0.413rd-0.07
Run EPA
9th-0.042nd-0.24
Success rate
1st54%2nd36%
Explosive plays
2nd12%2nd4%
Points per drive
3rd3.062nd1.58
Red zone TD
1st88%30th79%
Third downs
1st52%3rd28%
Sacks
1st2%7th8%
Turnovers
7th6%10th13%

49ers: 33.7 sec a snap (28th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense

SEA offSF def
EPA per play
26th-0.0910th-0.04
Pass EPA
18th+0.0515th+0.02
Run EPA
32nd-0.316th-0.20
Success rate
22nd41%10th42%
Explosive plays
16th8%1st4%
Points per drive
17th2.067th1.82
Red zone TD
15th60%12th50%
Third downs
29th32%18th41%
Sacks
23rd7%19th6%
Turnovers
29th17%13th12%

Seahawks: 34.3 sec a snap (30th fastest) · passes 6% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

49ers

  • QBBrock Purdy+0.42 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.3 · 149 dropbacks · 1st of 33
  • RBChristian McCaffrey+0.08 EPA a carry · 4.8 yds · 58 carries · 5th in EPA
  • WRMike Evans+1.00 EPA a target · 71% caught · 34 targets · 3rd in EPA
  • WRDeebo Samuel Sr.+0.42 EPA a target · 79% caught · 19 targets · 36th in EPA

Seahawks

  • QBSam Darnold-0.10 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.3 · 163 dropbacks · 27th of 33
  • RBEmanuel Wilson-0.22 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 72 carries · 36th in EPA
  • WRJaxon Smith-Njigba+0.70 EPA a target · 74% caught · 65 targets · 11th in EPA

Recent Form

49ers

  • W24-14vs Broncos+6
  • W36-30vs Cardinals−3
  • W35-13vs Dolphins+13
  • W27-7vs Rams—

Seahawks

  • W30-23vs Chargers−4
  • L31-33at Commanders−12
  • W31-7at Cardinals+17
  • W13-10vs Patriots—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.