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Saints at Giants

Week 6 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 26 · 11:39 AM ET

Saints1-4 going in
34–27Final
Giants3-1-1 going in

Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

The Call How this works

GordStats had Saints by 1.2✓, the book by 1.5 — they agree, no lean.

NO 54%win chanceNYG 46%
GordStatsNO by 1.254% to win · NO 23–NYG 22
BookNO -1.5O/U 46.5
Assumed outJaxson DartGiants quarterback

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Saints' red-zone offense (2nd) meets Giants' red-zone defense (30th).
  • Giants' third-down offense (9th) meets Saints' third-down defense (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Saints Offense vs Giants Defense

NO offNYG def
EPA per play
20th-0.0218th+0.02
Pass EPA
19th+0.0613th+0.05
Run EPA
24th-0.1623rd-0.06
Success rate
19th42%16th43%
Explosive plays
26th7%18th9%
Points per drive
15th2.1717th2.09
Red zone TD
2nd75%30th78%
Third downs
8th43%16th40%
Sacks
13th5%29th4%
Turnovers
30th17%15th10%

Saints: 30.3 sec a snap (3rd fastest) · passes 0% more than expected

Giants Offense vs Saints Defense

NYG offNO def
EPA per play
14th+0.0126th+0.08
Pass EPA
15th+0.1323rd+0.13
Run EPA
20th-0.1331st+0.00
Success rate
22nd42%31st49%
Explosive plays
22nd7%17th9%
Points per drive
18th2.0728th2.62
Red zone TD
10th67%14th57%
Third downs
9th43%30th50%
Sacks
26th8%9th7%
Turnovers
21st13%23rd9%

Giants: 33.1 sec a snap (24th fastest) · passes 7% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Saints

  • QBTyler Shough+0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.4 · 269 dropbacks · 19th of 34
  • RBKendre Miller-0.28 EPA a carry · 2.9 yds · 47 carries · 38th in EPA
  • WRChris Olave+0.55 EPA a target · 71% caught · 62 targets · 22nd in EPA
  • WRDevaughn Vele+0.50 EPA a target · 69% caught · 42 targets · 27th in EPA

Giants

  • QBJameis Winston-0.05 EPA a dropback · CPOE -7.7 · 162 dropbacks · 28th of 34
  • RBCam Skattebo-0.12 EPA a carry · 4.2 yds · 92 carries · 27th in EPA
  • WRMalachi Fields+0.63 EPA a target · 64% caught · 22 targets · 11th in EPA

Recent Form

Saints

  • L13–23vs Vikings−5
  • L24–45vs Falcons−24
  • L27–35vs Raiders−12
  • W24–17at Ravens+15

Giants

  • T27–27at Commanders+4
  • W36–24vs Cardinals+10
  • W12–7vs Titans0
  • L6–28at Rams−15

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.