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Broncos at Cardinals

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Broncos4-2 going in
30–16Final
Cardinals2-4 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET · CBS

State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Broncos by 5.1✓, the book by 4.5 — 0.6 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

DEN 65%win chanceARI 35%
GordStatsDEN by 5.165% to win · DEN 25–ARI 20
BookDEN -4.5O/U 43.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Broncos' ball security (5th) meets Cardinals' takeaway defense (29th).
  • Broncos' red-zone defense (7th) meets Cardinals' red-zone offense (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Broncos Offense vs Cardinals Defense

DEN offARI def
EPA per play
18th+0.0126th+0.08
Pass EPA
19th+0.0631st+0.28
Run EPA
15th-0.093rd-0.20
Success rate
28th39%18th44%
Explosive plays
27th7%22nd9%
Points per drive
23rd1.9431st2.70
Red zone TD
10th65%20th65%
Third downs
32nd30%14th39%
Sacks
5th4%8th7%
Turnovers
5th6%29th8%

Broncos: 31.5 sec a snap (11th fastest) · passes 1% more than expected

Cardinals Offense vs Broncos Defense

ARI offDEN def
EPA per play
20th-0.018th-0.06
Pass EPA
21st+0.027th-0.03
Run EPA
12th-0.0625th-0.05
Success rate
13th44%5th41%
Explosive plays
31st5%10th7%
Points per drive
20th1.976th1.83
Red zone TD
30th45%7th46%
Third downs
15th39%23rd42%
Sacks
13th6%14th7%
Turnovers
11th9%16th11%

Cardinals: 32.2 sec a snap (17th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Broncos

  • QBBo Nix+0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.6 · 246 dropbacks · 20th of 32
  • RBJ.K. Dobbins-0.19 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 94 carries · 33rd in EPA

Cardinals

  • QBJacoby Brissett-0.06 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.0 · 289 dropbacks · 26th of 32
  • RBJeremiyah Love-0.15 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 74 carries · 29th in EPA

Recent Form

Broncos

  • W17–14vs Seahawks+6
  • W23–17at Chargers+4
  • L14–24at 49ers−6
  • W30–26vs Rams+5

Cardinals

  • W18–16at Rams+13
  • L21–45vs Lions−20
  • L24–36at Giants−10
  • L30–36at 49ers+3

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.