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Chiefs at Seahawks

Week 7 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Chiefs5-0 going in
3–20Final
Seahawks3-3 going in

Sun, Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC

Lumen Field · Seattle, WA

The Call How this works

GordStats had Seahawks by 3.4✓, the book by 3 — they agree, no lean.

KC 40%win chanceSEA 60%
GordStatsSEA by 3.460% to win · KC 20–SEA 24
BookSEA -3O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Chiefs' run defense (6th) meets Seahawks' run game (31st).
  • Chiefs' red-zone offense (17th) meets Seahawks' red-zone defense (30th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Chiefs Offense vs Seahawks Defense

KC offSEA def
EPA per play
5th+0.133rd-0.14
Pass EPA
12th+0.163rd-0.07
Run EPA
2nd+0.081st-0.23
Success rate
8th48%2nd36%
Explosive plays
7th10%1st4%
Points per drive
9th2.322nd1.45
Red zone TD
17th58%30th79%
Third downs
13th40%2nd28%
Sacks
3rd4%13th7%
Turnovers
4th6%9th13%

Chiefs: 31.8 sec a snap (15th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

Seahawks Offense vs Chiefs Defense

SEA offKC def
EPA per play
23rd-0.0618th+0.03
Pass EPA
16th+0.1019th+0.09
Run EPA
31st-0.306th-0.17
Success rate
22nd42%6th41%
Explosive plays
14th8%11th7%
Points per drive
16th2.108th1.87
Red zone TD
24th52%5th42%
Third downs
18th39%13th39%
Sacks
19th6%31st3%
Turnovers
28th16%10th13%

Seahawks: 34.6 sec a snap (30th fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Chiefs

  • QBPatrick Mahomes+0.16 EPA a dropback · CPOE +1.9 · 235 dropbacks · 10th of 32
  • RBKenneth Walker III+0.07 EPA a carry · 5.4 yds · 134 carries · 6th in EPA
  • TETravis Kelce+0.64 EPA a target · 69% caught · 36 targets · 10th in EPA

Seahawks

  • QBSam Darnold-0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.8 · 192 dropbacks · 23rd of 32
  • RBEmanuel Wilson-0.22 EPA a carry · 3.2 yds · 85 carries · 35th in EPA
  • WRJaxon Smith-Njigba+0.75 EPA a target · 74% caught · 77 targets · 6th in EPA

Recent Form

Chiefs

  • W22–6vs Chargers+10
  • W30–27at Raiders−1
  • W24–10at Dolphins+9
  • W33–30vs Colts−2

Seahawks

  • L14–17at Broncos−6
  • L29–32vs 49ers−7
  • W30–23vs Chargers−4
  • L31–33at Commanders−12

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.