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Raiders at Jets

Week 8 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Raiders3-4 going in
38–33Final
Jets2-5 going in

Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ

The Call How this works

GordStats had Jets by 0.7✗, the book by 1.5 — 0.8 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

LV 48%win chanceNYJ 52%
GordStatsNYJ by 0.752% to win · LV 22–NYJ 24
BookNYJ -1.5O/U 46.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Jets' big-play offense (6th) meets Raiders' big-play defense (31st).
  • Jets' run defense (8th) meets Raiders' run game (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Raiders Offense vs Jets Defense

LV offNYJ def
EPA per play
12th+0.0419th+0.04
Pass EPA
7th+0.2027th+0.19
Run EPA
29th-0.218th-0.16
Success rate
14th44%24th46%
Explosive plays
26th7%12th8%
Points per drive
7th2.5519th2.32
Red zone TD
20th55%17th62%
Third downs
11th43%19th41%
Sacks
4th4%10th7%
Turnovers
7th7%26th9%

Raiders: 32.3 sec a snap (19th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

Jets Offense vs Raiders Defense

NYJ offLV def
EPA per play
16th+0.0129th+0.12
Pass EPA
15th+0.1030th+0.26
Run EPA
17th-0.1015th-0.09
Success rate
11th45%30th49%
Explosive plays
6th10%31st11%
Points per drive
15th2.1230th2.64
Red zone TD
31st44%25th67%
Third downs
23rd38%24th43%
Sacks
27th8%16th6%
Turnovers
9th8%5th15%

Jets: 33.7 sec a snap (27th fastest) · passes 2% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Raiders

  • QBKirk Cousins+0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.4 · 269 dropbacks · 9th of 32
  • RBAshton Jeanty-0.28 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 94 carries · 36th in EPA
  • TEBrock Bowers+0.45 EPA a target · 66% caught · 58 targets · 30th in EPA

Jets

  • QBGeno Smith+0.10 EPA a dropback · CPOE +6.0 · 259 dropbacks · 15th of 32
  • RBBraelon Allen+0.03 EPA a carry · 5.1 yds · 108 carries · 8th in EPA
  • WRGarrett Wilson+0.42 EPA a target · 69% caught · 61 targets · 34th in EPA
  • WRAdonai Mitchell+0.76 EPA a target · 62% caught · 26 targets · 4th in EPA

Recent Form

Raiders

  • L21–35vs Rams−8
  • L30–33vs Bills+5
  • L17–45at Patriots−21
  • L27–30vs Chiefs+1

Jets

  • L25–28vs Dolphins−5
  • L19–26at Patriots+3
  • W17–12vs Browns+5
  • L12–23at Bears−1

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.