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Eagles at Commanders

Week 8 · Final

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Eagles2-5 going in
10–27Final
Commanders1-4-1 going in

Sun, Nov 1 · 8:20 PM ET · NBC

Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD

The Call How this works

GordStats had Commanders by 2.7✓, the book by 6: a lean to Eagles +6✗.

On the total, GordStats said 45 to the book's 40.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

PHI 42%win chanceWSH 58%
GordStatsWSH by 2.758% to win · PHI 21–WSH 24
BookWSH -6O/U 40.5
Assumed outJalen HurtsEagles quarterback

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Commanders' ball security (1st) meets Eagles' takeaway defense (32nd).
  • Eagles' red-zone offense (3rd) meets Commanders' red-zone defense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense

PHI offWSH def
EPA per play
24th-0.0620th+0.04
Pass EPA
23rd-0.0118th+0.09
Run EPA
21st-0.1316th-0.09
Success rate
30th38%25th46%
Explosive plays
32nd4%6th6%
Points per drive
30th1.6321st2.33
Red zone TD
3rd71%31st79%
Third downs
26th37%25th43%
Sacks
22nd7%23rd6%
Turnovers
14th10%11th13%

Eagles: 32.0 sec a snap (16th fastest) · passes 4% less than expected

Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense

WSH offPHI def
EPA per play
22nd-0.0321st+0.06
Pass EPA
20th+0.0424th+0.15
Run EPA
23rd-0.1423rd-0.05
Success rate
26th40%20th44%
Explosive plays
21st7%20th9%
Points per drive
22nd1.9623rd2.35
Red zone TD
19th55%15th60%
Third downs
31st32%18th41%
Sacks
16th6%32nd3%
Turnovers
1st4%32nd5%

Commanders: 30.5 sec a snap (5th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Eagles

  • RBSaquon Barkley+0.02 EPA a carry · 4.9 yds · 56 carries · 9th in EPA
  • WRDontayvion Wicks+0.53 EPA a target · 61% caught · 31 targets · 21st in EPA

Commanders

  • QBJayden Daniels+0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.3 · 175 dropbacks · 13th of 32
  • RBJacory Croskey-Merritt-0.10 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 67 carries · 22nd in EPA
  • WRTerry McLaurin+0.58 EPA a target · 60% caught · 25 targets · 16th in EPA

Recent Form

Eagles

  • L21–38vs Cowboys−16
  • L14–25vs Panthers−11
  • L17–19vs Jaguars+3
  • L20–24vs Rams−3

Commanders

  • L17–23at 49ers+4
  • T27–27vs Giants−4
  • L13–30vs Colts−15
  • W33–31vs Seahawks+12

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.