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Bears at Seahawks

Week 8 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Bears5-2
at
Seahawks4-3

Mon, Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET · ESPN

Lumen Field · Seattle, WA

52° Intermittent clouds

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Seahawks by 5.8, the book by 3 — 2.8 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

CHI 33%win chanceSEA 67%
GordStatsSEA by 5.867% to win · CHI 20–SEA 26
DraftKingsSEA -3O/U 46.5
ESPNSEA 57%win chance
Watch score92Toss-up · Winning teams

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bears' pass rush (2nd) meets Seahawks' pass protection (19th).
  • Seahawks' run defense (1st) meets Bears' run game (18th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense

CHI offSEA def
EPA per play
8th+0.093rd-0.14
Pass EPA
8th+0.203rd-0.07
Run EPA
18th-0.101st-0.23
Success rate
7th48%2nd36%
Explosive plays
5th10%1st4%
Points per drive
8th2.342nd1.45
Red zone TD
21st53%30th79%
Third downs
6th44%2nd28%
Sacks
20th6%13th7%
Turnovers
25th14%9th13%

Bears: 31.5 sec a snap (12th fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense

SEA offCHI def
EPA per play
23rd-0.069th-0.05
Pass EPA
16th+0.104th-0.06
Run EPA
31st-0.3018th-0.07
Success rate
22nd42%4th41%
Explosive plays
14th8%17th9%
Points per drive
16th2.1012th1.99
Red zone TD
24th52%22nd65%
Third downs
18th39%1st26%
Sacks
19th6%2nd8%
Turnovers
28th16%20th10%

Seahawks: 34.6 sec a snap (30th fastest) · passes 8% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bears

  • QBCaleb Williams+0.35 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.9 · 139 dropbacks · 1st of 32
  • RBD'Andre Swift-0.11 EPA a carry · 3.8 yds · 103 carries · 24th in EPA
  • WRRome Odunze+0.73 EPA a target · 68% caught · 31 targets · 7th in EPA
  • WRKalif Raymond+0.48 EPA a target · 86% caught · 28 targets · 28th in EPA

Seahawks

  • QBSam Darnold-0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.8 · 192 dropbacks · 23rd of 32
  • RBEmanuel Wilson-0.22 EPA a carry · 3.2 yds · 85 carries · 35th in EPA
  • WRJaxon Smith-Njigba+0.75 EPA a target · 74% caught · 77 targets · 6th in EPA

Recent Form

Bears

  • W30–24vs Patriots+7
  • W31–23at Falcons+7
  • L7–31at Packers−26
  • W23–12vs Jets+1

Seahawks

  • W20–3vs Chiefs+14
  • L14–17at Broncos−6
  • L29–32vs 49ers−7
  • W30–23vs Chargers−4

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.