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Rams at Commanders

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Rams4-4
at
Commanders2-4-1

Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD

The Call How this works

GordStats likes Rams by 5.3, the book by 5.5 — they agree, no lean.

LAR 66%win chanceWSH 34%
GordStatsLAR by 5.366% to win · LAR 27–WSH 21
DraftKingsLAR -5.5O/U 47.5
ESPNLAR 73%win chance
Watch score57

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Rams' red-zone offense (4th) meets Commanders' red-zone defense (31st).
  • Rams' third-down defense (6th) meets Commanders' third-down offense (31st).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Rams Offense vs Commanders Defense

LAR offWSH def
EPA per play
10th+0.0620th+0.04
Pass EPA
14th+0.1218th+0.09
Run EPA
8th-0.0316th-0.09
Success rate
4th49%25th46%
Explosive plays
10th9%6th6%
Points per drive
11th2.2621st2.33
Red zone TD
4th69%31st79%
Third downs
7th44%25th43%
Sacks
6th4%23rd6%
Turnovers
24th14%11th13%

Rams: 31.3 sec a snap (8th fastest) · passes 6% more than expected

Commanders Offense vs Rams Defense

WSH offLAR def
EPA per play
22nd-0.035th-0.07
Pass EPA
20th+0.0412th+0.01
Run EPA
23rd-0.147th-0.16
Success rate
26th40%8th42%
Explosive plays
21st7%9th7%
Points per drive
22nd1.969th1.92
Red zone TD
19th55%6th43%
Third downs
31st32%6th32%
Sacks
16th6%27th4%
Turnovers
1st4%22nd10%

Commanders: 30.5 sec a snap (5th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Rams

  • QBMatthew Stafford+0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.5 · 296 dropbacks · 14th of 32
  • RBKyren Williams+0.02 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 89 carries · 10th in EPA
  • WRDavante Adams+0.48 EPA a target · 61% caught · 46 targets · 27th in EPA

Commanders

  • QBJayden Daniels+0.12 EPA a dropback · CPOE +5.3 · 175 dropbacks · 13th of 32
  • RBJacory Croskey-Merritt-0.10 EPA a carry · 3.6 yds · 67 carries · 22nd in EPA
  • WRTerry McLaurin+0.58 EPA a target · 60% caught · 25 targets · 16th in EPA

Recent Form

Rams

  • W24–9vs Chargers+8
  • W35–21at Raiders+8
  • L16–18vs Cardinals−13
  • L34–37vs Bills−4

Commanders

  • W27–10vs Eagles+14
  • L17–23at 49ers+4
  • T27–27vs Giants−4
  • L13–30vs Colts−15

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.