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Raiders at 49ers

Week 9 preview

Updated Mon, Nov 2 · 11:43 AM ET

Raiders4-4
at
49ers6-1

Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET · Fox

Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA

The Call How this works

GordStats likes 49ers by 8.9, the book by 9.5 — 0.6 points apart, short of the 3 it takes for a lean.

LV 25%win chanceSF 75%
GordStatsSF by 8.975% to win · LV 21–SF 29
DraftKingsSF -9.5O/U 51.5
ESPNSF 84%win chance
Watch score60

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • 49ers' big-play offense (2nd) meets Raiders' big-play defense (31st).
  • 49ers' run defense (4th) meets Raiders' run game (29th).

League rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Raiders Offense vs 49ers Defense

LV offSF def
EPA per play
12th+0.0413th-0.01
Pass EPA
7th+0.2016th+0.06
Run EPA
29th-0.214th-0.19
Success rate
14th44%19th44%
Explosive plays
26th7%2nd4%
Points per drive
7th2.5514th2.01
Red zone TD
20th55%8th48%
Third downs
11th43%10th38%
Sacks
4th4%20th6%
Turnovers
7th7%27th9%

Raiders: 32.3 sec a snap (19th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

49ers Offense vs Raiders Defense

SF offLV def
EPA per play
1st+0.1929th+0.12
Pass EPA
1st+0.2930th+0.26
Run EPA
3rd+0.0315th-0.09
Success rate
1st54%30th49%
Explosive plays
2nd11%31st11%
Points per drive
2nd2.8830th2.64
Red zone TD
1st87%25th67%
Third downs
2nd50%24th43%
Sacks
1st3%16th6%
Turnovers
18th12%5th15%

49ers: 33.9 sec a snap (29th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Raiders

  • QBKirk Cousins+0.17 EPA a dropback · CPOE -1.4 · 269 dropbacks · 9th of 32
  • RBAshton Jeanty-0.28 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 94 carries · 36th in EPA
  • TEBrock Bowers+0.45 EPA a target · 66% caught · 58 targets · 30th in EPA

49ers

  • QBBrock Purdy+0.33 EPA a dropback · CPOE +4.4 · 217 dropbacks · 2nd of 32
  • RBChristian McCaffrey+0.17 EPA a carry · 4.7 yds · 78 carries · 1st in EPA
  • WRMike Evans+1.02 EPA a target · 69% caught · 39 targets · 1st in EPA

Recent Form

Raiders

  • W38–33at Jets+6
  • L21–35vs Rams−8
  • L30–33vs Bills+5
  • L17–45at Patriots−21

49ers

  • L20–29at Falcons−13
  • W23–17vs Commanders−4
  • W32–29at Seahawks+7
  • W24–14vs Broncos+6

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.