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Falcons at Packers

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Falcons0-2 going in
35–14Final
Packers1-1 going in

Thu, Sep 24 · 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video

Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI

The Call How this works

GordStats had Packers by 6.8✗, the book by 4.5 — they agree, no lean.

ATL 30%win chanceGB 70%
GordStatsGB by 6.870% to win · ATL 19–GB 26
BookGB -4.5O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Falcons' run defense (3rd) meets Packers' run game (32nd).
  • Falcons' red-zone offense (3rd) meets Packers' red-zone defense (30th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense

ATL offGB def
EPA per play
32nd-0.2428th+0.10
Pass EPA
32nd-0.5018th+0.07
Run EPA
5th+0.0124th-0.04
Success rate
13th45%24th46%
Explosive plays
14th9%4th6%
Points per drive
28th1.4624th2.44
Red zone TD
3rd80%30th80%
Third downs
25th34%29th49%
Sacks
24th8%11th7%
Turnovers
31st23%21st9%

Falcons: 34.2 sec a snap (29th fastest) · passes 10% less than expected

Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense

GB offATL def
EPA per play
26th-0.085th-0.08
Pass EPA
18th+0.075th+0.00
Run EPA
32nd-0.413rd-0.29
Success rate
28th38%3rd38%
Explosive plays
19th7%11th8%
Points per drive
25th1.704th1.64
Red zone TD
26th47%7th50%
Third downs
32nd27%10th37%
Sacks
13th5%27th4%
Turnovers
24th14%27th6%

Packers: 32.8 sec a snap (22nd fastest) · passes 3% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Falcons

  • QBCooper Rush-0.67 EPA a dropback · CPOE -13.4 · 46 dropbacks · 32nd of 32
  • RBBijan Robinson+0.05 EPA a carry · 5.6 yds · 58 carries · 9th in EPA
  • WRDrake London+0.48 EPA a target · 75% caught · 16 targets · 34th in EPA

Packers

  • QBJordan Love+0.01 EPA a dropback · CPOE -7.2 · 129 dropbacks · 21st of 32

Recent Form

Falcons

  • L3-34vs Panthers−36
  • L13-20at Steelers—

Packers

  • W20-17at Jets−1
  • L22-39at Vikings—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.