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Panthers at Browns

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Panthers1-1 going in
18–21Final
Browns1-1 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH

The Call How this works

GordStats had Panthers by 0.7✗, the book by 2.5 — they agree, no lean.

CAR 52%win chanceCLE 48%
GordStatsCAR by 0.752% to win · CAR 22–CLE 22
BookCAR -2.5O/U 41.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Panthers' big-play offense (5th) meets Browns' big-play defense (32nd).
  • Panthers' run defense (10th) meets Browns' run game (31st).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Panthers Offense vs Browns Defense

CAR offCLE def
EPA per play
8th+0.1120th+0.03
Pass EPA
9th+0.2113th+0.05
Run EPA
18th-0.1027th-0.02
Success rate
18th44%19th45%
Explosive plays
5th11%32nd11%
Points per drive
10th2.5917th2.21
Red zone TD
11th65%8th50%
Third downs
16th38%13th38%
Sacks
16th6%9th8%
Turnovers
11th7%19th9%

Panthers: 29.1 sec a snap (1st fastest) · passes 8% more than expected

Browns Offense vs Panthers Defense

CLE offCAR def
EPA per play
19th-0.0216th+0.01
Pass EPA
15th+0.1219th+0.08
Run EPA
31st-0.3010th-0.13
Success rate
20th43%13th43%
Explosive plays
28th6%15th8%
Points per drive
15th2.0223rd2.37
Red zone TD
24th50%28th73%
Third downs
29th33%21st43%
Sacks
25th8%22nd5%
Turnovers
15th10%11th13%

Browns: 30.1 sec a snap (5th fastest) · passes 9% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Panthers

  • QBBryce Young+0.25 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.3 · 160 dropbacks · 8th of 32
  • RBChuba Hubbard+0.03 EPA a carry · 5.0 yds · 56 carries · 11th in EPA
  • WRJalen Coker+0.45 EPA a target · 80% caught · 20 targets · 40th in EPA
  • TEDarren Waller+0.49 EPA a target · 72% caught · 18 targets · 30th in EPA

Browns

  • QBDeshaun Watson+0.13 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.6 · 131 dropbacks · 14th of 32
  • TEHarold Fannin Jr.+0.54 EPA a target · 74% caught · 23 targets · 27th in EPA

Recent Form

Panthers

  • W34-3at Falcons+36
  • L37-59vs Bears—

Browns

  • W23-19at Buccaneers+10
  • L10-34at Jaguars—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.