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Bengals at Steelers

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Bengals2-0 going in
27–30Final
Steelers1-1 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA

The Call How this works

GordStats had it a coin flip, the book had Bengals by 3.5: a lean to Steelers +3.5✓.

On the total, GordStats said 46 to the book's 42.5: a lean to the Over✓.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

CIN 50%win chancePIT 50%
GordStatsCoin flip50% to win · CIN 23–PIT 23
BookCIN -3.5O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Bengals' red-zone defense (3rd) meets Steelers' red-zone offense (29th).
  • Bengals' big-play offense (10th) meets Steelers' big-play defense (31st).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense

CIN offPIT def
EPA per play
9th+0.0921st+0.05
Pass EPA
12th+0.1415th+0.06
Run EPA
15th-0.0822nd-0.05
Success rate
11th46%26th48%
Explosive plays
10th9%31st11%
Points per drive
12th2.3710th1.86
Red zone TD
23rd50%16th60%
Third downs
7th45%8th35%
Sacks
14th5%8th8%
Turnovers
17th11%4th16%

Bengals: 32.3 sec a snap (21st fastest) · passes 9% more than expected

Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense

PIT offCIN def
EPA per play
24th-0.0519th+0.03
Pass EPA
26th-0.0614th+0.06
Run EPA
10th-0.0415th-0.09
Success rate
22nd42%20th45%
Explosive plays
15th8%24th9%
Points per drive
27th1.5214th2.05
Red zone TD
29th44%3rd31%
Third downs
28th33%23rd44%
Sacks
23rd8%3rd9%
Turnovers
22nd13%10th13%

Steelers: 32.3 sec a snap (20th fastest) · passes 7% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Bengals

  • QBJoe Burrow+0.15 EPA a dropback · CPOE +6.0 · 162 dropbacks · 13th of 32
  • RBChase Brown-0.06 EPA a carry · 3.7 yds · 47 carries · 26th in EPA
  • WRTee Higgins+0.66 EPA a target · 64% caught · 36 targets · 17th in EPA
  • WRJa'Marr Chase+0.58 EPA a target · 74% caught · 27 targets · 24th in EPA

Steelers

  • QBAaron Rodgers-0.08 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.6 · 154 dropbacks · 25th of 32
  • RBJaylen Warren+0.01 EPA a carry · 5.5 yds · 52 carries · 16th in EPA

Recent Form

Bengals

  • W20-6at Texans+20
  • W33-27vs Buccaneers—

Steelers

  • L3-20at Patriots−11
  • W20-13vs Falcons—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.