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Texans at Colts

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Texans0-2 going in
17–19Final
Colts0-2 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Texans by 1.1✗, the book by 1.5 — they agree, no lean.

On the total, GordStats said 48 to the book's 42.5: a lean to the Over✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

HOU 53%win chanceIND 47%
GordStatsHOU by 1.153% to win · HOU 25–IND 24
BookHOU -1.5O/U 42.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Texans' ball security (5th) meets Colts' takeaway defense (32nd).
  • Colts' big-play offense (11th) meets Texans' big-play defense (26th).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense

HOU offIND def
EPA per play
17th-0.0114th+0.00
Pass EPA
13th+0.1316th+0.07
Run EPA
28th-0.2321st-0.05
Success rate
17th44%12th42%
Explosive plays
13th9%20th9%
Points per drive
20th1.8720th2.26
Red zone TD
21st53%12th57%
Third downs
18th36%4th30%
Sacks
22nd7%18th6%
Turnovers
5th4%32nd4%

Texans: 31.7 sec a snap (15th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

Colts Offense vs Texans Defense

IND offHOU def
EPA per play
23rd-0.0525th+0.06
Pass EPA
30th-0.1928th+0.21
Run EPA
1st+0.1412th-0.10
Success rate
21st43%6th41%
Explosive plays
11th9%26th10%
Points per drive
14th2.2725th2.53
Red zone TD
6th75%19th64%
Third downs
15th38%14th38%
Sacks
15th6%2nd9%
Turnovers
26th18%25th7%

Colts: 32.2 sec a snap (18th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Texans

  • QBC.J. Stroud+0.16 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.9 · 145 dropbacks · 12th of 32
  • RBWoody Marks-0.11 EPA a carry · 3.3 yds · 27 carries · 29th in EPA
  • WRNico Collins+0.80 EPA a target · 78% caught · 18 targets · 10th in EPA

Colts

  • QBDaniel Jones-0.18 EPA a dropback · CPOE -3.0 · 132 dropbacks · 30th of 32
  • RBJonathan Taylor+0.08 EPA a carry · 4.1 yds · 85 carries · 5th in EPA
  • WRJosh Downs+0.52 EPA a target · 63% caught · 27 targets · 29th in EPA

Recent Form

Texans

  • L6-20vs Bengals−20
  • L31-36vs Bills—

Colts

  • L30-33at Chiefs+2
  • L23-41vs Ravens—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.