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Chiefs at Dolphins

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Chiefs2-0 going in
24–10Final
Dolphins0-2 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET · CBS

Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL

The Call How this works

GordStats had Chiefs by 5.2✓, the book by 10: a lean to Dolphins +10✗.

A side against the book is a disagreement, not a tip — how ours have done.

KC 65%win chanceMIA 35%
GordStatsKC by 5.265% to win · KC 25–MIA 19
BookKC -10O/U 45.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Chiefs' run game (2nd) meets Dolphins' run defense (28th).
  • Chiefs' red-zone defense (9th) meets Dolphins' red-zone offense (32nd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Chiefs Offense vs Dolphins Defense

KC offMIA def
EPA per play
4th+0.1730th+0.19
Pass EPA
11th+0.1930th+0.36
Run EPA
2nd+0.1328th-0.02
Success rate
7th48%32nd51%
Explosive plays
4th11%28th10%
Points per drive
6th2.7430th2.73
Red zone TD
12th63%20th65%
Third downs
8th45%28th49%
Sacks
7th4%28th3%
Turnovers
8th5%22nd8%

Chiefs: 31.3 sec a snap (10th fastest) · passes 3% more than expected

Dolphins Offense vs Chiefs Defense

MIA offKC def
EPA per play
28th-0.1217th+0.01
Pass EPA
25th-0.0617th+0.07
Run EPA
27th-0.209th-0.14
Success rate
31st35%9th41%
Explosive plays
21st7%14th8%
Points per drive
32nd1.2411th1.88
Red zone TD
32nd33%9th50%
Third downs
17th38%11th37%
Sacks
27th9%31st3%
Turnovers
23rd14%9th15%

Dolphins: 33.0 sec a snap (25th fastest) · passes 6% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Chiefs

  • QBPatrick Mahomes+0.19 EPA a dropback · CPOE +0.0 · 137 dropbacks · 11th of 32
  • RBKenneth Walker III+0.11 EPA a carry · 6.2 yds · 83 carries · 4th in EPA
  • TETravis Kelce+0.74 EPA a target · 71% caught · 21 targets · 14th in EPA
  • WRTyquan Thornton+1.27 EPA a target · 73% caught · 15 targets · 1st in EPA

Dolphins

  • QBMalik Willis-0.07 EPA a dropback · CPOE -8.1 · 105 dropbacks · 24th of 32
  • RBDe'Von Achane-0.15 EPA a carry · 3.9 yds · 32 carries · 31st in EPA

Recent Form

Chiefs

  • W33-30vs Colts−2
  • W31-10vs Broncos—

Dolphins

  • L13-35at 49ers−13
  • L13-27at Raiders—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.