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Jets at Lions

Week 3 · Final

Updated Mon, Oct 5 · 9:46 PM ET

Jets1-1 going in
24–31Final
Lions1-1 going in

Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET · Fox

Ford Field · Detroit, MI

Indoors

The Call How this works

GordStats had Lions by 9.1✓, the book by 6.5 — they agree, no lean.

NYJ 24%win chanceDET 76%
GordStatsDET by 9.176% to win · NYJ 20–DET 29
BookDET -6.5O/U 48.5

Unit vs Unit How this works

  • Lions' pass rush (6th) meets Jets' pass protection (30th).
  • Lions' ball security (1st) meets Jets' takeaway defense (23rd).

National rank on each side, 1st the best; the longer bar has the edge.

Jets Offense vs Lions Defense

NYJ offDET def
EPA per play
18th-0.0131st+0.20
Pass EPA
16th+0.1129th+0.29
Run EPA
25th-0.1931st+0.01
Success rate
19th44%28th50%
Explosive plays
20th7%30th11%
Points per drive
19th1.9032nd3.10
Red zone TD
20th55%32nd82%
Third downs
27th33%31st54%
Sacks
30th9%6th8%
Turnovers
2nd2%17th10%

Jets: 34.3 sec a snap (30th fastest) · passes 0% less than expected

Lions Offense vs Jets Defense

DET offNYJ def
EPA per play
7th+0.1115th+0.01
Pass EPA
7th+0.2322nd+0.11
Run EPA
14th-0.078th-0.14
Success rate
2nd49%29th50%
Explosive plays
12th9%13th8%
Points per drive
5th2.9018th2.21
Red zone TD
8th72%10th53%
Third downs
14th39%15th38%
Sacks
10th5%15th6%
Turnovers
1st2%23rd8%

Lions: 31.4 sec a snap (11th fastest) · passes 1% less than expected

From nflverse play-by-play. Every team: Team Stats.

Players to Watch

Jets

  • QBGeno Smith+0.09 EPA a dropback · CPOE +7.1 · 131 dropbacks · 15th of 32
  • RBBreece Hall-0.18 EPA a carry · 3.0 yds · 46 carries · 35th in EPA
  • WRGarrett Wilson+0.49 EPA a target · 79% caught · 29 targets · 33rd in EPA
  • WRAdonai Mitchell+0.58 EPA a target · 60% caught · 15 targets · 26th in EPA

Lions

  • QBJared Goff+0.25 EPA a dropback · CPOE -0.3 · 154 dropbacks · 7th of 32
  • RBJahmyr Gibbs+0.01 EPA a carry · 4.6 yds · 77 carries · 13th in EPA
  • TESam LaPorta+0.46 EPA a target · 64% caught · 28 targets · 37th in EPA
  • WRJameson Williams+0.47 EPA a target · 62% caught · 24 targets · 35th in EPA

Recent Form

Jets

  • L17-20vs Packers+1
  • W23-10at Titans—

Lions

  • L31-41at Bills−6
  • W31-30vs Saints—

The last column is the margin against our line before kickoff: + beat it, − fell short.

What These Numbers Mean
EPA
Expected points added per play: how much a snap changed the points the offense could expect from the drive. EPA per play is adjusted for the opponents faced; the splits are as played, garbage time out.
Success rate
Share of plays with positive EPA.
Explosive plays
Dropbacks of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per play.
Red zone TD
Possessions with a snap inside the 20 that end in a touchdown.
Sacks
Per dropback: the offense's taken, the defense's made.
Turnovers
Possessions ending in an interception or a lost fumble: the offense's giveaways, the defense's takeaways.
Players
QBs on EPA per dropback (CPOE is completion percentage over expected), backs per carry, receivers per target; ranked among the leaderboard qualifiers.